Will Claude go down on __ days in July?
Resolved5as of
This hub tracks 5 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
noreply@statuspage.io - Claude Incident - Elevated errors across models - 21 July 2026
noreply@statuspage.io - Claude Incident - Elevated errors across Fable 5 - 17 July 2026
noreply@statuspage.io - Claude Incident - Elevated errors on multiple models - 15 July 2026
noreply@statuspage.io - Claude Incident - Elevated errors on Claude.ai - 6 July 2026
noreply@statuspage.io - Claude Incident - Elevated errors on Claude Opus 4.8 - 2 July 2026
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the number of days in July 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).