Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
Open1as of
Market pricing makes Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? the favorite at 41%, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Bitcoin > gold. • • BTC’s correlation with gold is near a record high. But similar correlations don’t equal similar returns. BTC is up and gold is down over the past month. • • Our takeaway: marginal demand is favoring bitcoin, even in the face of higher rates. • • Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with gold and beta to the Nasdaq 100 ↓
Yes. Here’s why: 1) btc leans younger, gold older 2) it will get used more by big money as it matures and settles down w both vol and corr 3) way more enthusiasm and sales firepower. no one is out there talking about gold ETFs but you got dozens of wholesalers (fluent in both crypto and boomer) out there educating on btc ETFs.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the percentage change for BTC/USDT is higher than the percentage change for XAU/USD for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is information from TradingView, specifically the charts for BTC/USDT (https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT) and XAU/USD (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD). The change value displayed at the top of the graph for the “12M” candle dated “01 Jan ’26” will be used once the data for both relevant candles are finalized.
If the change is exactly equal according to the resolution source for the specified candles, this market will resolve 50-50.