Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Open1as of
Market pricing makes Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? the favorite at 6%, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Live: Isaias is a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 115 m.p.h., as of the National Hurricane Center's 5 p.m. update. Its strongest winds will begin moving ashore in the next few hours, and forecasters warn that gusts are likely to spread far inland overnight. They expect the storm’s center to make landfall tonight in the western Florida Panhandle near Pensacola.
Live: A big question all day has been how strong Isaias will get as it approaches the coast. Hurricane categories are essentially a measure of their wind speeds, and late Thursday night, the National Hurricane Center nudged its forecast a little higher and said it expects the storm to reach Category 3.
What is this event about?
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.