Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
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Market pricing makes Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? the favorite at 16%, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Trump: In order to sign a civilian nuclear energy agreement with Saudi Arabia, it must join the Abraham Accords. Normalization with Israel
Trump places new condition on signed Saudi nuclear deal, says country must join Abraham Accords
Barak Ravid: "I think you will see more countries joining the Abraham Accords"
Abraham Accords will expand through defense cooperation
- @dannydanon : Lebanon will join the Abraham Accords one day @FoxBusiness •
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.