Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?
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This hub tracks 30 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
16 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
The Murky Ethics of Sean Duffy’s New Reality Show
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright admitted responsibility for the mistaken firings of several critical employees of the National Nuclear Security Administration in February 2025. The secretary of the agency made this statement during testimony before the U.S. Senate. "A mistake was made at the very beginning, and it's entirely my fault. In the very first week after my appointment, the term 'temporary employees' appeared. I misinterpreted it, and it's 100% my fault," the minister said. Wright said he thought the term "temporary employees" referred to newly hired people. It later turned out that they were referring to employees who had worked for the department for many years and were recently appointed to new positions. RBC Channel in "Max" RBC app for iOS and Android
Energy Secretary Wright testifies Energy Secretary Chris Wright testifies before the Senate Armed Services Committee on national nuclear security
Exclusive — Secretary Doug Burgum: Transition from Traditional Energy ‘Was Always a Fantasy’
Exclusive: Secretary Doug Burgum Says Mining, Energy Jobs Offer a ‘Sure-Fire, Long-Term Career’
US Transportation Dept spokesperson response on inquiry into Sean Duffy "road trip" expenses: • • "No taxpayer dollars were spent on Secretary Duffy’s family. The Secretary and his family do not receive any salary or production royalties. In addition, career ethics and budget officials at the Department of Transportation reviewed and approved both his participation and individual travel in accordance with federal rules. Costs covered by the Great American Road Trip, Inc. include things like gas, car rentals, lodging, and activities"
Exclusive — Secretary Doug Burgum: Transition from Traditional Energy ‘Always a Fantasy’
NEW: Watchdog group Citizens for Responsbility & Ethics in Washington have asked the Inspector General to probe Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy's "road trip" with family • • Inquiry seeks info on whether any taxpayer $$ was used and asks: • • "Did Secretary Duffy or his family accept any travel, hospitality or other gifts.. If so, were those gifts and funds provided by entities with business before the Department?"
NEW: U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright says the Trump administration is open to suspending the federal gas tax to help lower fuel prices for Americans.
Transcript: Energy Secretary Chris Wright on "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan," May 10, 2026
Sean Duffy faces backlash for new family reality show: ‘unfocused and out of touch’
The ever-diminishing role of Marco Rubio
Howard Coincidence Lutnick.
It’s answers like these that make me proud to be an American. • • “Ours is a story of perpetual improvement.” -Sec. of State Marco Rubio
Sean Duffy, the transportation secretary, just returned to the ballroom after he was rushed out.
Some of Donald Trump's allies are increasingly viewing US Secretary of State Marco Rubio as a serious presidential contender ahead of the 2028 elections, Politico reports, citing White House sources. Those supporting Rubio's candidacy consider his skills in resolving foreign conflicts and his ability to avoid political pitfalls to be key advantages. Vice President J.D. Vance remains the frontrunner, but Rubio's approval ratings have risen, and the White House is now considering him a likely alternative candidate, according to two senior administration officials and five other people close to the White House. RBC Channel in "Max" RBC app for iOS and Android
What is this event about?
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.