Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?
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This hub tracks 33 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
New job for Marco Rubio:
[Replying to @WhiteHouse] Vice President JD Vance and Cabinet Secretaries in the Situation Room, February 28, 2026 >
RT @atrupar: what the hell was Chris Wright doing here?
From @WSJopinion: Headlines buzzed over Trump’s naming of new antifraud czar, JD Vance, but the real news came after. The feds are turning off the spigots in Minnesota, writes @KimStrassel.
Trump gives a shout out to his Secretary of State as Marco Rubio does the meme, probably realizing he's going to have like six more jobs at the end of the night.
BREAKING: Trump announces Vice President JD Vance will lead a 'war on fraud'
Trump: Officially announcing a war on fraud to be led by JD Vance
An emotionally moved Chris Wright nods along with Trump
RT @atrupar: my money is on Pam Bondi
Veterans Affairs Secretary Doug Collins appears to be tonight's designated survivor — the member of the president's Cabinet who spends SOTU in a secure location to be able to take on the role of the president if tragedy strikes.
Veterans Affairs Secretary Doug Collins appears to tonight's designated survivor — the member of the president's Cabinet who spends SOTU in a secure location to be able to take on the role of the president if tragedy strikes.
RT @Benzinga: Scott Bessent Says 2026 Tariff Revenue 'Virtually Unchanged' After SCOTUS Ruling Sparks Trump's Fury— 'We'll See Whether...'…
Scott Bessent Says 2026 Tariff Revenue 'Virtually Unchanged' After SCOTUS Ruling Sparks Trump's Fury— 'We'll See Whether...'
Washington, D.C. police said they have closed an investigation into the husband of Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, who had been the subject of a report of unwanted sexual contact by an agency employee
Sec. Scott Bessent: "The IEEPA tariffs are going to be replaced in 3 days with the Section 122, and I can tell you, at Treasury... tariff revenue will be unchanged this year, and will be unchanged in the future."
Trump: Pete Hegseth—turned out to be absolutely fantastic at what he does, and you know what he does.
BREAKING: “No decrease” in tariff revenue for 2026, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicts.
Trump: How's the economy doing, Scott? Good? Scott Bessent: Doing great, sir.
The husband of embattled Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer is under investigation for an alleged sexual assault that took place at Labor Department headquarters, according to police
The husband of embattled Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer is under investigation for an alleged sexual assault that took place at Labor Department headquarters, according to police
Scoop w/ @rebeccadobrien: The husband of Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer has been barred from the department’s headquarters after at least two female staff members told investigators that he had sexually assaulted them.
U.S. ENERGY SECRETARY CHRIS WRIGHT: EU CARBON BORDER TARIFF IS A HUGE RISK, COULD MAKE IT TOO RISKY TO EXPORT GAS TO EUROPE
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U.S. ENERGY SECRETARY CHRIS WRIGHT: EU CARBON BORDER TARIFF IS A HUGE RISK, COULD MAKE IT TOO RISKY TO EXPORT GAS TO EUROPE
Marco Rubio was once seen as ill-suited to an “America First” agenda. Now he’s one of Trump’s most powerful advisers — and is trying to make neocon ideas MAGA-friendly.
BREAKING: Rep. Thomas Massie says he does not have confidence in AG Pam Bondi.
*TRUMP SANCTIONS CHIEF SET TO LEAVE AFTER TENSION WITH BESSENT
Massie says he’s lost confidence in Pam Bondi after congressional hearing
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has kicked off a two-day visit to Eastern Europe aimed at strengthening relations with Slovakia and Hungary, whose conservative leaders maintain close ties with former President Donald Trump.
Five takeaways from WSJ’s investigation into what’s going on inside Sec. Kristi Noem’s Department of Homeland Security
Marco Rubio-"Trump prefers diplomacy with Iran."
What is this event about?
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.