Who will be the first to leave the Burnham Cabinet?
Open23as of
Market pricing makes Other the favorite at 50% across 23 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
Other50%
John Healey14%
What moved the odds?
9 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Lord Chancellor swearing-in speech: Rt Hon Alex Norris MP
Live: Wes Streeting says he feels 'completely vindicated' for choosing Burnham
Live: John Healey says being chancellor is 'honour of my life'
Here is the Chancellor John Healey • • Follow here: •
John Healey used a low-key first speech as chancellor to recommit to many of the policies and principles of his predecessor Rachel Reeves, chiefly fiscal discipline and a drive for growth • • He said devolution would be at the heart of the budget, that he’d expand Keir Starmer’s reforms of judicial review from energy to other major infrastructure (a move that will be welcomed) and committed to reducing the burden of business regulation by 25% • • But for what was billed as a big growth speech there was little new policy detail, vision or strategy. Healey talked again about the still vague idea of “public control,” which still remains largely undefined by the Burnham government and some will worry could inhibit growth. It will likely mean more borrowing and taxes • • He said he’s optimistic Britain’s economy is turning a corner but simultaneously warned of global headwinds from the Iran war impacting the UK in the months ahead, including borrowing costs and the public finances. He said this is weighing on the UK and the government and making its task harder • • Overall it showed the conflicts at the centre of the Burnham-Healey government. Between boosterism and difficult realities, and between promising transformation and the need to reassure markets with a message of continuity with Starmer and Reeves
Live: John Healey delivers first major speech as chancellor - watch live
Live: John Healey to set out economic vision in first major speech as chancellor
Burnham’s deputy, Louise Haigh, will lead task forces on each of those issues, the Guardian understands. • • The PM told his ministers they must be “relentless” in fulfilling his priorities.
Andy Burnham on John Healey • • “I appointed this chancellor exactly because of his backing for defence.”
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the first individual, of those named in this list, whose departure from his or her position in the cabinet of Andy Burnham is officially announced by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The departure will be considered to be announced when the specified individual, Andy Burnham, the Government of the United Kingdom, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that the specified individual has ceased or will cease to hold a United Kingdom cabinet position. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that he or she will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of his or her term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve according to the specified individual if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
If multiple individuals are officially announced to depart at the same time, this market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
An official announcement that an individual will remain in the cabinet under a different title or assignment will not qualify. The individual must be officially announced to depart the cabinet to qualify.
Whether or not an individual will continue or cease to attend cabinet meetings will have no bearing on this market. Only an individual’s departure from service in a relevant cabinet minister position will be relevant for resolution.
If Andy Burnham officially ceases to be Prime Minister, or no individual is officially announced to depart the Burnham cabinet, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the specified individual, Andy Burnham, and the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.