Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Open9as of
Market pricing makes Democratic Party the favorite at 64% across 9 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Individual Senate races all feed into one bigger question: which party will control the chamber? Current event contract pricing: 57% Democratic, 43% Republican.
Individual Senate races all feed into one bigger question: which party will control the chamber? Current event contract pricing: 57% Democratic, 43% Republican.
Also from “News Items” from @EllisItems ( • • “8. Charlie Cook on the Mid-Term Elections: • • Where Democratic Senate candidates are doing best, the recipe is pretty much the same. First, they are winning a higher percentage of votes from Democrats than the GOP candidates are from Republicans. Second, Democratic candidates are getting a higher share of independent votes than Republican candidates. Third, Democrats are getting a larger share of the women’s vote than Republicans are of the men’s vote. • That Democrats are overperforming in a lot of red states is unmistakable, but they are also encountering a bumpier road in some blue, Democrat-tilting states like Maine, where Republican Sen. Susan Collins is seeking a sixth term. Some disagree, but I think it will be an uphill battle for Democrats to hold onto their open seat in Michigan, after Motor State Democrats made an unforced error in selecting Abdul El-Sayed as their nominee. In the Minnesota open seat, they nominated potentially problematic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan. • • To capture a Senate majority, and to match the midterm average of a 26-seat House gain, Democrats have to do something that neither party has succeeded in doing in a long time: They need defections, specifically convincing Republicans to vote for a Democrat. For Democrats, doing well among fellow party members and independents is not enough in many red states. This becomes critical particularly if they have to win five GOP seats to make up for losing one of their own. (Source:
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election.
A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated.
The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.
All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.
Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.