Which party will win the House in 2026?
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Market pricing makes Democratic Party the favorite at 90% across 9 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
13 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
FWD from IZ.RU • IMPORTANT: How is US President Donald Trump preparing for the midterm congressional elections in November? Election Situation Currently, Republicans control both the House of Representatives (they hold 218 seats) and the Senate, which has 53 members and is led by Republican J.D. Vance. But in just over two months, the face of the US legislative branch could change. Midterm elections traditionally bring opposition to Congress. Democrats now have a chance to regain a majority in both chambers. Numerous American publications are reporting on this. Some analysts predict a close fight to the very end. Although election results are often predetermined by the strength of one party or another in a given state, up to 20 seats in the House of Representatives and up to six in the Senate remain in question. New district maps Redrawing the boundaries of the electoral districts that will elect members of the House of Representatives has become the primary tool that will influence the election results. These districts determine 435 members, and depending on their population, states receive between one and 52 representatives. Redistricting typically occurs only after the census. But with Trump's return to the White House, this process was launched ahead of schedule. The trend was set in Texas, where the Republican majority proposed a new district map that would give their party five new representatives in the next election. Other states followed suit. A rough analysis of all the changes shows that Trump's party gained an additional 10 districts. Voting by mail Donald Trump opposes this option, considering it a way to rig the election. He also accuses Democrats of voting by mail more often than Republicans. Meanwhile, the president himself voted by mail to participate in the Florida primary, where his estate is located. Trump attempted to deal a major blow to mail-in voting with the "Save America" bill. In it, the president proposed mandating citizenship verification for voters and eliminating mail-in voting except in cases of illness, disability, military service, or travel. The controversial bill failed to advance past the House of Representatives. Because of this, Trump restricted mail-in voting through his own executive orders. Some Democratic states attempted to block them through federal courts, but the US Supreme Court overturned the decision, arguing that the rules had not yet gone into effect. It remains unclear whether they will be in effect for the November elections. Targeted appointments Another focus for Trump has been appointing his supporters, who largely share his position on election fraud in 2020, to key election positions. He also periodically raises the issue of a state of emergency, which would temporarily expand his powers. By law, the US president is not supposed to interfere with the election process in this way, but there are now speculations that Trump will send security forces to polling stations where the battle between Republicans and Democrats is expected. Subscribe to IMPORTANT | More news here
Will the Republican Party's disadvantage in the US midterm elections be reversed? Low unemployment and stable inflation give the Republicans a tailwind.
New: House Democrats are kicking off 2026 with the political winds blowing in their favor. But the challenge is keeping the momentum so they flip the chamber in November. w/ @elwasson link:
BREAKING: Democrats have a 79% chance of winning the House in 2026.
BREAKING: Democrats have a 79% chance of winning the House in 2026.
BREAKING: The odds of Democrats winning the US House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms rise to 79%, per Polymarket. Markets think Republicans are set to lose the midterms.
‘If anything is going to save the Republican party next year, it's gonna be these older voters.’ @jamesoliphant on what the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll reveals about the 2026 midterms
Recent electoral victories have given Democrats increasing hope of taking back one and perhaps both houses of the US Congress in next year’s midterm elections, but a new Reuters/Ipsos poll suggests that some of that enthusiasm may be premature
In the 2026 midterms Democrats have a chance to retake the House of Representatives. But a good electoral showing should not allay worries about the party’s long-term prospects
In the 2026 midterms Democrats have a chance to retake the House of Representatives. But a good electoral showing should not allay worries about the party’s long-term prospects
The real test is likely to come in 2028, when a new Republican presidential nominee will have to try to piece Donald Trump’s coalition of lower-turnout groups back together
BREAKING: Republicans lead the 2026 Congressional midterms over Democrats by 4 points, according to a new RMG poll. Republicans: 48%
Democrats: 44%
Top Overnight News A divided Supreme Court cleared Texas to use its new Republican-drawn congressional map for the 2026 midterm election, overruling a lower court order and bolstering GOP hopes of picking up as many as five new House seats in the state. BBG The US is…
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election.
A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated.
The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.
All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.