Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?

OpenOutcomes36as of

Market pricing makes Avengers: Doomsday the favorite at 54% across 36 tracked outcomes, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

All further outcomes (6 more):

Movie V · Movie W · Movie X · Movie Y · Movie Z · Other

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

The film "Spider-Man: New Day" has grossed over $2.3 billion worldwide, bringing it within three of the highest-grossing films of all time, according to Comic Basics. In its opening weekend, the film grossed $927 million worldwide, setting a box office record in the US, surpassing "Avengers: Endgame." The film crossed the $1 billion mark in just six days of release. Box office receipts subsequently continued to grow rapidly, reaching $2.022 billion. The film surpassed "Spider-Man: No Way Home" to become Sony's highest-grossing film and the eighth film in history to surpass the $2 billion mark. In terms of worldwide box office receipts, the film is close to the leaders of the rating - "Avatar," "Avengers: Endgame," and "Avatar: The Way of Water." If the current rate continues, it could rise even higher. RBC channel on "Max" RBC app for iOS and Android
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" continued its reign at the top of the North American box office, adding nearly $70 million to its tally during its third weekend. This brings its worldwide total to over $2 billion since its release on July 31, making it the highest-grossing film in Sony Pictures history, according to The Hollywood Reporter. The film earned $360 million in its North American opening, surpassing the record previously held by "Avengers: Endgame" in 2019, before adjusting for inflation. Christopher Nolan's "The Odyssey" debuted in second place with $23.2 million, followed by "The End of Oak Street" in third with $21 million during its opening weekend. #Arabic_Business
Two billion dollars in two weeks! The new Spider-Man movie breaks Marvel and Sony records. #Arabic_Business
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day": How to explain the superhero's meteoric box office success?
The film "Spider-Man: New Day," which premiered globally on July 31, became the highest-grossing film of 2026 in its first week of release, earning over $1.1 billion. The film's worldwide box office has now exceeded $1.7 billion against a budget of $225 million, making it one of Marvel's most successful projects. "Spider-Man: New Day" has not been officially released in Russia, but some cinema chains are planning to show it in a pre-release format, paired with a short film. Due to the coincidence with the premiere of the Russian fairy tale "The Last Knight," Distributor Atmosfera Kino and the Association of Cinema Owners asked cinema chains to postpone the release of Kolobok until August 20th. Why Spider-Man became Marvel's best-selling hero, how he brought back the popularity of the comic book film genre, and how people make money from it—in this RBC article. More infographics—on our channel in "Max."
Toy Story 5ft.com93%match2¢-100%
‘Toy Story 5’ box office boosts Disney as US theme parks rebound
Spider-Man: Brand New DayPA98%match32¢+44%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day earns one billion US dollars at box office in six days
Toy Story 5ft.com96%match2¢-100%
Strong box office for Toy Story 5 boosts Disney as US theme parks rebound
Toy Story 5APws95%match4¢-100%
BURBANK, Calif. (AP) — 'Toy Story 5' powers strong quarter at Disney with a $1 billion box office haul
Toy Story 5asahi.com91%match1¢-100%
Toy Story 5 is a record-breaking hit; experts discuss "the story and its questions."
spider-man just had the biggest opening weekend in movie history. he needs about 11 more of those to catch the dog
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day": How to explain the superhero's meteoric rise at the box office?
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day": how to explain the superhero's meteoric rise at the box office?
'Spider-Man 4' Beats 'Avengers'... Record-Breaking US Box Office on Opening Weekend
$360 million in one weekend: "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" beats "The Avengers" and achieves the best opening weekend in North American box office history
Spider-Man: Brand New Dayafp98%match30¢+53%
‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day†had the biggest debut weekend of all time at the domestic box office, figures for the US and Canada show. It earned $360 million, ahead of the previous record-holder, Disney's ‘Avengers: Endgame' from 2019. •
'Spider-Man' breaks record for domestic box office debut
Spider-Man: Brand New DayAPws98%match30¢+53%
LOS ANGELES (AP) — ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ scores opening weekend record with $360 million, topping ‘Avengers: Endgame’
'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' beats out 'Avengers: Endgame' for highest domestic opening ever
'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' beats out 'Avengers: Endgame' for highest domestic opening ever
Spider-Man comes $2 million shy of Avengers record for all-time first-weekend record, already close to $1 billion global box office
"Phenomenal": Spider-Man: Brand New Day achieves the second-best opening in history
"An absolutely phenomenal start": "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" achieves the second-best opening in history at the global box office
Spider-Man has blockbuster opening.
$355 million: New “Spider-Man” film has an extremely successful theatrical release
'Spider-Man 4' Sweeps Vacationers, Surpasses 3.38 Million Korean Viewers in 5 Days... Ranks 2nd All-Time for North American Opening
Spider-Man: Brand New Day defies superhero fatigue with record-breaking opening weekend
"A powerful one-two punch from 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' and 'The Odyssey' has fueled the biggest collective weekend in box office history, with roughly $430 million across all movies in the marketplace," @rebeccaarubin reports
Sony Pictures' "Spider-Man: New Day" is projected to gross a whopping $927 million worldwide in its opening weekend. According to the studio, this makes it the second-highest-grossing opening weekend of any film in history.
New Spider-Man film sees second-best global opening weekend ever

What is this event about?

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week. If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.