Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?
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Market pricing makes US the favorite at 28% across 8 tracked outcomes, as of .
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Al Arabiya correspondent Nour El-Din Al-Furaidi: The European Union is considering increasing the capabilities of the SAF (Speeds) and joining the maritime coalition; European vessels from the Netherlands and France are stationed off the Strait of Hormuz.
Al Arabiya correspondent Nour El-Din Al-Furaidi: The European Union is considering increasing the capabilities of the SAF (Speeds) and joining the maritime coalition; European vessels from the Netherlands and France are stationed off the Strait of Hormuz.
Strait of Hormuz: "France is ready to get more involved," says Emmanuel Macron
French President Emmanuel Macron told the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday that reopening the Strait of Hormuz was “a priority” and announced that France had formed “an independent, multinational coalition” to restore freedom of navigation. He warned that the strait “must not become an instrument of blackmail.” Macron also warned against regime change from outside, saying that every time “a few states” have tried to “put themselves in the place of nations to change this regime or that system,” they have plunged those countries into “more severe chaos.”
Live: Macron says France ready to be more engaged to make Strait of Hormuz transit possible
Macron: France is only ready for a defensive operation in the Strait of Hormuz
ABC News on Macron: France is ready to participate in an international operation of a defensive nature to ensure the protection of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz
Emmanuel Macron: Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is a priority. Respect for international law is also a priority. This is in everyone's interest and France is committed to it.
Macron: Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is a priority for France
Reuters, citing diplomats: France has begun drafting a resolution, in coordination with Washington, on forming an international mission to restore navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Reuters, citing diplomats: France has begun drafting a resolution, in coordination with Washington, on forming an international mission to restore navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
French Foreign Ministry spokesman Pascal Confavreau told Al-Hadath: "Freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is a priority for France... and we have deployed aircraft carriers to the Middle East to protect our partners."
France and South Korea agree to cooperate on freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and stabilization of supply chains at summit.
South Korean Presidential Office: Iran has requested clarification regarding reports concerning South Korea's role in the Strait of Hormuz. South Korea and France discussed their respective contributions to the security of the Strait of Hormuz, not the deployment of military forces. #AlMayadeen
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.