Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of August?
Open31as of
Market pricing makes Google the favorite at 97% across 31 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
Google97%
Other50%
Company A50%
Company B50%
Company C50%
Company D50%
Company E50%
Company F50%
Company G50%
Company H50%
Company I50%
Company J50%
Company K50%
Company L50%
MiniMax1%
Meta0%
OpenAI0%
SpaceXAI0%
Pixverse0%
Runway0%
KlingAI0%
Pruna0%
Luma AI0%
Tencent0%
Pika0%
Genmo AI0%
All further outcomes (1 more):
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Alibaba launches Wan3.0 AI video model after $10 billion share sale
Alibaba Unveils Beta of 'Wan3.0', AI for Generating 30-Second Videos
ByteDance's AI models are lagging behind, but they're not worried? Zhang Yiming declared: Willing to sacrifice short-term gains for long-term goals.
Minimax H3 is the first *open* video model I've seen that outperforms HunyuanVideo 1.5 - which is actually an impressive accomplishment for @TencentHunyuan to have held that throne for so long. • • For a while now I've been sad that the image/video frontier seemed to be getting much more closed than the text LLM frontier. H3 is a very strong step back in the open direction. • • This was generated in ~30 min on my AMD laptop: •
Tencent AI 'Hy3' Knokes to Global Users and Companies
MiniMax's stock price surged over 14% after launching its first open-source multimodal generative model, H3. The market eagerly awaits to see if it can regain its leading position.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".