Which company has the best Text Arena Coding AI model end of July?

ResolvedOutcomes26as of

This hub tracks 26 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

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xAI0%

What moved the odds?

6 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

MetaMeta AI Chief92%match100¢
I was VERY skeptical, but it looks like Meta really did it. • • Muse Spark 1.1 is on par with Opus 4.8 and better than Grok 4.5-- frankly it's better than pretty much everything except Sol and Fable, and at highly competitive prices (it leads our cost/performance curve). It performs great in both agentic coding and one-shot reasoning in our multi-agent evaluation suite. • • Results will be live on the site by next week, alongside Kimi K3 which we are still testing (she's a big slow girl)
Metatechstartups.com99%match0¢
Meta launches Muse Spark 1.1, an agentic AI coding model with an API to challenge OpenAI and Anthropic
Metazdnet.co.kr99%match0¢
Meta Unveils Coding AI 'Muse Spark 1.1'... Chasing OpenAI and Antropic
Metatechcrunch.com99%match0¢
Meta enters the crowded AI coding battle with Muse Spark 1.1
OpenAIcnbc98%match4¢-100%
OpenAI's newest AI model is 54% more token efficient on agentic coding, Altman tells CNBC
OpenAIcnbc.com98%match4¢-100%
OpenAI's newest AI model is 54% more token efficient on agentic coding, Altman tells CNBC

What is this event about?

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

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