Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of September?
Open32as of
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
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14 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Anthropic launches Claude Opus 5.5, claims it beats OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol at one-third the cost
While its CEO has called for a slowdown in AI development, Anthropic is launching a powerful and less expensive new model.
DeepSeek announces new AI model; improved performance but lower fees.
Meta's most powerful AI model is unveiled; Wang Tao: It catches up with Anthropic and surpasses GPT-5.6 Sol.
AnthropicDesenvolvedora anunciou atualização de seus modelos Claude Fable 5.1 e Mythos 5.192%match33¢+203%
Anthropic launches its most powerful AI yet, along with textual watermarking.
MEDIA-Meta releases more powerful AI model, edging closer to rivals - Bloomberg News
Top Overnight News • • Iran has gone about seven weeks without shipping meaningful crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz, as a U.S. naval blockade succeeds where years of sanctions failed by cutting off one of Tehran's main sources of foreign-currency earnings. Unlike previous sanctions campaigns, when Iranian crude continued reaching buyers despite restrictions, the current blockade has stopped fresh crude cargoes reaching China, Tehran's only major remaining oil customer, increasing pressure on government finances and foreign-currency reserves. Reuters • • Fighting between the US and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz intensified after a period of relative calm, triggering a fresh jump in oil prices. The US military carried out strikes targeting radar systems and mine-laying capabilities along Iran’s southern coast, and Iran retaliated with drone and missile volleys on US bases across the Middle East: BBG • • The U.S.-Canada trade standoff is threatening to stretch past the midterm elections. The White House is shrugging off the threat. With a week to go before Canada imposes its retaliatory tariffs, aimed at key industries in states like Ohio and Texas with competitive Senate elections, tensions between Washington and Ottawa are at a steady simmer, with no sign of de-escalation. Politico • • Russia since 2023 has been helping Iran develop advanced supersonic cruise missiles, and Putin has vowed to continue to provide support to Iran. FT/Washington Post • • Bank of Japan Board Member Hajime Takata, one of the central bank’s most hawkish members, left the door open for an outsized interest-rate increase as well as back-to-back hikes, indicating he might push for a faster pace of tightening. The BOJ has raised its benchmark interest rate in quarter-point increments in the most recent three moves, while spacing the moves roughly six months apart. The size and frequency may change as circumstances evolve. BBG • • Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday that the Bank of Japan will debate raising interest rates including in September with a focus on whether inflationary risks were heightening, signaling a strong chance of a hike this month. Reuters • • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised interest rates Wednesday, warning that risks for higher inflation remain in play for the economy. The central bank raised the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, in line with market expectations. BBG • • A closely followed measure of artificial intelligence token prices touched fresh lows this week, the latest sign of deflating prices in an increasingly competitive landscape. • • Anthropic is releasing a new version of its powerful Fable artificial intelligence model that it says is better at coding and science tasks, as well as more economical. BBG • OpenAI is to restrict Astra model after rating it a critical cyber risk: WSJ. • Dell became the latest company to reinforce optimism around the AI trade. The company increased its annual sales forecast by $25 billion in a further sign of surging demand for servers to run AI tasks. BBG
“Lost even by Grok due to top-tier model delays”… Google releases only lightweight AI
“Lost even by Grok due to top-tier model delays”… Google releases only lightweight AI
Serve Qwen3.8-2.4T-A95B, a 2.4T-Parameter Model, with Configurable Reasoning on NVIDIA GB300 NVL72. • Alibaba released the open weights for Qwen3.8-2.4T-A95B (Qwen3.8-Max), its largest open-weight model, bringing near-frontier capabilities to the open...
Meta Shares Up 1.4% After Co Launches New AI Model
Meta launches new AI in push for best open source model to beat China
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”