Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of September?
Open32as of
Market pricing makes Anthropic the favorite at 73% across 32 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
“Lost even by Grok due to top-tier model delays”… Google releases only lightweight AI
“Lost even by Grok due to top-tier model delays”… Google releases only lightweight AI
Serve Qwen3.8-2.4T-A95B, a 2.4T-Parameter Model, with Configurable Reasoning on NVIDIA GB300 NVL72. • Alibaba released the open weights for Qwen3.8-2.4T-A95B (Qwen3.8-Max), its largest open-weight model, bringing near-frontier capabilities to the open...
Meta Shares Up 1.4% After Co Launches New AI Model
Meta launches new AI in push for best open source model to beat China
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”