Which company has the best AI model end of September?
Open32as of
Market pricing makes Anthropic the favorite at 95% across 32 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Last week, @SpaceXAI released Grok 4.6, its new frontier model designed for coding, agentic tasks, and knowledge work. • • Independent evaluations suggest that SpaceXAI has returned to the AI frontier competition based on both performance and cost. • • The economics of Grok 4.6 seem particularly compelling for AI agents. Artificial Analysis estimates that Grok 4.6 costs $0.84 per task on its Intelligence Index, placing it on the Pareto frontier for intelligence-versus-cost. • • More from @MattarARK in this week's newsletter
Meta Releases Open Source AI Model… US Big Tech’s ‘Open AI’ Rises Amidst China’s Chase
“Free AI Boosts GPU Demand”… NVIDIA Challenges for World’s Best Open Model
Nvidia Is Developing A New Nemotron 4 Open-Source AI Model - The Information •
Meta launches AI model and Zuckerberg defends "open weight"
Meta launches a new semi-open AI model, Zuckerberg advocates for "personal superintelligence for all"
Meta Shares Up 1.4% After Co Launches New AI Model
Shares of Meta Up 1.9% Premarket After Co Launches New AI Model
Meta to open source its most powerful AI model as it takes swipe at OpenAI, Anthropic
Meta launches new AI in push for best open source model to beat China
MiniMax-M2.5: A Mixture-of-Experts Model. • TL;DR MiniMax-M2.5 is a 229B-parameter Mixture-of-Experts model built for coding, tool use, professional search, and office productivity. It combines a 196,608-token context window with reinforcement learning across hundreds of thousands of real-world environments. What the Model Is MiniMax-M2.5, now listed on AIOZ AI, is the latest model in MiniMax’s M2 series. The model is optimized for practical agentic tasks that require planning, tool interaction, and complete deliverables. Its target
A few thoughts on the $META AI model's progress, because I think it is significant. • • 1. It does seem that $META has now leapfrogged $GOOGL in model quality when it comes to Muse 1.2 for many use cases, which is very surprising given the timeframe. • • 2. This is still the "Muse Spark" family of models; $META already told us that bigger and more capable models (Watermelon) are coming. Given Muse Spark 1.2's performance already, the Watermelon family should be in the Fable category, which is impressive. • • 3. It does seem like $META is finally on a product scaling velocity curve (so the scaling foundations of their lab are set after 1 year of overhaul). And the shipping velocity is very good (3 releases in 4 months). • • 4. Given the recent rumored price hike of DeepSeek (if you use DeepSeek directly), it is clear that having enough compute to serve customers is critical. It doesn't help you if you have a great model, but most can't use it. $META is one of the few companies with compute capabilities comparable to, if not larger than, those of Anthropic or OpenAI.
Alibaba Unveils Qwen3.8-Max Model—China’s Latest AI Challenger To OpenAI And Anthropic. • The Chinese tech giant hailed its model as its “most capable.”
US-Listed Shares of Alibaba Gain 3.7% After Co Unveils New AI Model
Alibaba launches its largest AI model and moves closer to competing with American giants
#Arabic_Business
Alibaba launches its largest AI model and moves closer to competing with American giants
#Arabic_Business
Alibaba shares rally after unveiling its 'most powerful' AI model as U.S.-China competition heats up
Alibaba shares rally after unveiling its 'most powerful' AI model as U.S.-China competition heats up
China's Alibaba unveils latest AI model, offering lower prices compared to US competitors.
Alibaba Unveils New AI Model… Approaches Kimi with 2.4 Trillion Parameters
Alibaba has released a new AI model, calling it Qwen 3.8-Max, the most powerful model in the Qwen family to date. This model boasts 2.4 trillion parameters and will be fully open-sourced next week.
Alibaba unveils its most capable AI model to date, not far behind Moonshot’s in size
DeepSeek Releases V4 Models Beta As AI Price War Heats Up – Nikkei •
DeepSeek releases beta version of V4 models as AI price war heats up
China's Moonshot AI Opens Top AI Model... Head-to-Head Battle with OpenAI and Antropic
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".