Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
Open32as of
Market pricing makes Anthropic the favorite at 79% across 32 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
13 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
META PLATFORMS $META IS PLANNING TO LAUNCH A CONSUMER AI AGENT IN THE COMING WEEKS • • The project internally named "Hatch "is the consumer version of Meta's internal OpenClaw AI agent. • • Meta is also targeting October for its next AI model, called "Watermelon." - The Information
SPACEXAI: Grok 4.6 leads on the two strongest knowledge-work / real-world productivity benchmarks (GDPVal-AA and AA-Briefcase) and on the legal benchmark, while remaining highly competitive on coding-agent and general intelligence metrics.
NVIDIA $NVDA JUST RELEASED NEMOTRON 3.5 LIGHTNING, ITS MOST EFFICIENT MODEL YET FOR LONG-RUNNING AI AGENTS • • The 30-billion-parameter mixture-of-experts model is built for specialized tasks inside larger multi-agent systems, following the earlier Nemotron 3 Nano release. • • Alongside it, NVIDIA released NeMo Switchyard, an open source library that intelligently routes each request to the most capable model for the job, without developers having to rewrite their applications.
NVIDIA Nemotron 3.5 Lightning Delivers Fast, Accurate Specialized Task Execution for Long-Running Agents. • Long-running AI agents spend most of their time on high-volume execution: tool calls, result validation, and subagent delegation. Using a frontier reasoning...
Meta Unveils First AI Coding Agent 'Muse Code'... Challenging OpenAI and Antropic
Meta launches its first AI agent, aiming to challenge Anthropic and OpenAI.
Meta Unveils First AI Coding Agent… "Competing on Price, Not Performance"
Meta just shipped the beta version of its first coding agent. • • Muse Code is the agent system around Muse Spark 1.2, adding planning, tools, persistent session context, parallel sub-agents, and automatic validation. • • So it can handle one large software task for hours without needing a human to prompt every next step. • • - Scores 82.9% on Terminal-Bench 2.1 against 86.7% for Claude Code running Opus 5. • • - On DeepSWE 1.1 it lands at 59.3%, behind Opus 5 (65.0%) and GPT 5.6 Terra (64.8%). • • - installs with one command • • - You get background agents that stay alive for the whole session and accumulate context, instead of restarting cold on every task. • • - When a job grows big enough, the work fans out to sub-agents running in parallel inside isolated worktrees. • • - Every model call, tool run and edit hits a local event log before it executes, so a crash resumes from the last entry with nothing re-prompted. • • - That durability is why it could run 1,000+ tool calls over 24 hours on NVIDIA Hopper and keep finding kernel improvements deep into the session. • • - Pricing matches Muse Spark 1.1: $1.25/$4.25 per million input/output tokens
*Meta Platforms Releasing Coding Agent to Compete With OpenAI, Anthropic, Company Says -- WSJ
$META | Meta Debuts First AI Coding Agent To Take On Anthropic And OpenAI - @CNBC •
Alphabet, Google's parent company, announced a major leadership overhaul of its artificial intelligence division. Demis Hassabis, head of AI, stepped down from his top management role, and several Gemini model leaders, including veteran engineer Jeff Dean, also left the company. This radical change comes at a pivotal moment for Google's DeepMind, as the main version of its latest Gemini model has yet to be released despite a planned June launch, raising concerns among investors and the industry that Google is falling behind rivals Anthropic and OpenAI. Alphabet shares fell 4% following the announcement of the changes. #Arabic_Business
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.