Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
Open32as of
This hub tracks 32 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
22 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
[UPDATE] Meta's Muse personal AI agent tops ChatGPT, Grok and Claude (first reported at 2026-09-21T18:28:51+0000)
I really wasn’t expecting @Meta to suddenly be leading the ai agent race. @Muse is SOOO good.
Meta Shares Boosted After Muse AI Agent Launch. • Meta’s shares jumped over 5% on Wednesday morning after the company launched an AI agent that can send emails, book trips and make payments.
Meta Shares Up 4.6% After Co Launches Muse AI Agent
Meta has launched its long-promoted AI agent, Muse, which can send emails, sell cars, and book travel without human intervention. Muse, internally known as Hatch, is central to CEO Mark Zuckerberg's plan to deliver "super-intelligence" to the billions of people who use Meta's services daily. #Arabic_Business
META $META LAUNCHES MUSE, A PERSONAL AI AGENT • • The company says Muse does the work rather than just answering questions, handling tasks like sending email, booking travel, and negotiating on a user's behalf, and continuing after the app is closed. It runs on Muse Spark, which Meta calls its most capable model to date, and works through the Muse app or directly in WhatsApp. • • Muse runs on a dedicated cloud VM holding the agent, user data, and credentials. A separate Sentinel agent on the same machine must approve anything that reaches the internet, and Meta says Muse has no visibility into passwords or payment methods. • • It checks out through Link, built by Stripe, which Meta says makes it the first AI agent covered by Link's purchase protections. • • Rolling out in the US on iOS, Android, and muse .ai, free for most use with subscription plans above that.
OPENAI'S PRESIDENT SAYS AGI MAY HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED, AND THAT THIS IS THE MODEL • • Greg Brockman told reporters that in a couple of years, when people look back and ask when AGI was created, he thinks the answer will be around now and possibly this model. • • OpenAI launched GPT-6 Astra Thursday and calls it the world's best computer use model. In the company's own tests it booked DMV appointments, searched job listings, and apartment hunted faster than the average person. • • Rollout starts with enterprise clients in the Daybreak early access program, then ChatGPT Plus, Pro, and Business. No word on free users. • • OpenAI is racing toward a planned IPO. So is Anthropic.
Top Overnight News • • Iran has gone about seven weeks without shipping meaningful crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz, as a U.S. naval blockade succeeds where years of sanctions failed by cutting off one of Tehran's main sources of foreign-currency earnings. Unlike previous sanctions campaigns, when Iranian crude continued reaching buyers despite restrictions, the current blockade has stopped fresh crude cargoes reaching China, Tehran's only major remaining oil customer, increasing pressure on government finances and foreign-currency reserves. Reuters • • Fighting between the US and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz intensified after a period of relative calm, triggering a fresh jump in oil prices. The US military carried out strikes targeting radar systems and mine-laying capabilities along Iran’s southern coast, and Iran retaliated with drone and missile volleys on US bases across the Middle East: BBG • • The U.S.-Canada trade standoff is threatening to stretch past the midterm elections. The White House is shrugging off the threat. With a week to go before Canada imposes its retaliatory tariffs, aimed at key industries in states like Ohio and Texas with competitive Senate elections, tensions between Washington and Ottawa are at a steady simmer, with no sign of de-escalation. Politico • • Russia since 2023 has been helping Iran develop advanced supersonic cruise missiles, and Putin has vowed to continue to provide support to Iran. FT/Washington Post • • Bank of Japan Board Member Hajime Takata, one of the central bank’s most hawkish members, left the door open for an outsized interest-rate increase as well as back-to-back hikes, indicating he might push for a faster pace of tightening. The BOJ has raised its benchmark interest rate in quarter-point increments in the most recent three moves, while spacing the moves roughly six months apart. The size and frequency may change as circumstances evolve. BBG • • Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday that the Bank of Japan will debate raising interest rates including in September with a focus on whether inflationary risks were heightening, signaling a strong chance of a hike this month. Reuters • • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised interest rates Wednesday, warning that risks for higher inflation remain in play for the economy. The central bank raised the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, in line with market expectations. BBG • • A closely followed measure of artificial intelligence token prices touched fresh lows this week, the latest sign of deflating prices in an increasingly competitive landscape. • • Anthropic is releasing a new version of its powerful Fable artificial intelligence model that it says is better at coding and science tasks, as well as more economical. BBG • OpenAI is to restrict Astra model after rating it a critical cyber risk: WSJ. • Dell became the latest company to reinforce optimism around the AI trade. The company increased its annual sales forecast by $25 billion in a further sign of surging demand for servers to run AI tasks. BBG
META PLATFORMS $META IS PLANNING TO LAUNCH A CONSUMER AI AGENT IN THE COMING WEEKS • • The project internally named "Hatch "is the consumer version of Meta's internal OpenClaw AI agent. • • Meta is also targeting October for its next AI model, called "Watermelon." - The Information
SPACEXAI: Grok 4.6 leads on the two strongest knowledge-work / real-world productivity benchmarks (GDPVal-AA and AA-Briefcase) and on the legal benchmark, while remaining highly competitive on coding-agent and general intelligence metrics.
NVIDIA $NVDA JUST RELEASED NEMOTRON 3.5 LIGHTNING, ITS MOST EFFICIENT MODEL YET FOR LONG-RUNNING AI AGENTS • • The 30-billion-parameter mixture-of-experts model is built for specialized tasks inside larger multi-agent systems, following the earlier Nemotron 3 Nano release. • • Alongside it, NVIDIA released NeMo Switchyard, an open source library that intelligently routes each request to the most capable model for the job, without developers having to rewrite their applications.
NVIDIA Nemotron 3.5 Lightning Delivers Fast, Accurate Specialized Task Execution for Long-Running Agents. • Long-running AI agents spend most of their time on high-volume execution: tool calls, result validation, and subagent delegation. Using a frontier reasoning...
Meta Unveils First AI Coding Agent 'Muse Code'... Challenging OpenAI and Antropic
Meta launches its first AI agent, aiming to challenge Anthropic and OpenAI.
Meta Unveils First AI Coding Agent… "Competing on Price, Not Performance"
Meta just shipped the beta version of its first coding agent. • • Muse Code is the agent system around Muse Spark 1.2, adding planning, tools, persistent session context, parallel sub-agents, and automatic validation. • • So it can handle one large software task for hours without needing a human to prompt every next step. • • - Scores 82.9% on Terminal-Bench 2.1 against 86.7% for Claude Code running Opus 5. • • - On DeepSWE 1.1 it lands at 59.3%, behind Opus 5 (65.0%) and GPT 5.6 Terra (64.8%). • • - installs with one command • • - You get background agents that stay alive for the whole session and accumulate context, instead of restarting cold on every task. • • - When a job grows big enough, the work fans out to sub-agents running in parallel inside isolated worktrees. • • - Every model call, tool run and edit hits a local event log before it executes, so a crash resumes from the last entry with nothing re-prompted. • • - That durability is why it could run 1,000+ tool calls over 24 hours on NVIDIA Hopper and keep finding kernel improvements deep into the session. • • - Pricing matches Muse Spark 1.1: $1.25/$4.25 per million input/output tokens
*Meta Platforms Releasing Coding Agent to Compete With OpenAI, Anthropic, Company Says -- WSJ
$META | Meta Debuts First AI Coding Agent To Take On Anthropic And OpenAI - @CNBC •
Alphabet, Google's parent company, announced a major leadership overhaul of its artificial intelligence division. Demis Hassabis, head of AI, stepped down from his top management role, and several Gemini model leaders, including veteran engineer Jeff Dean, also left the company. This radical change comes at a pivotal moment for Google's DeepMind, as the main version of its latest Gemini model has yet to be released despite a planned June launch, raising concerns among investors and the industry that Google is falling behind rivals Anthropic and OpenAI. Alphabet shares fell 4% following the announcement of the changes. #Arabic_Business
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.