Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?
Open32as of
Market pricing makes Anthropic the favorite at 90% across 32 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Meta Says New AI Model Is State-of-the-Art, Will Make Muse Agent Smarter -- WSJ
Meta Platforms $META Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang just posted this: • • “introducing muse wonder • • our new frontier model. state-of-the-art at personal agents and professional agents.”
AI: A breakthrough? Mistral releases new top-of-the-line model
OpenAI Unveils Cost-Effective Model 'GPT-6.1 Sol' and AI Agent 'Dots'
[UPDATE] Altman unveils 'always-on' AI agent after OpenAI shelves another model over security concerns (first reported at 2026-09-29T18:51:35Z)
OpenAI has unveiled an AI agent designed to proactively accomplish tasks on behalf of the user, competing with companies like Meta Platforms in the growing market for AI-powered digital assistants. OpenAI said the product, called Dots, can use the computer and access information from various connected applications to conduct research, draft documents, and develop software. Users can instruct and interact with the agent by messaging it through ChatGPT. The company revealed the new tool at its Developer Day event on Tuesday, along with an updated version of its Sol model and a collaborative space that allows teams to work with AI together. #Arabic_Business
[AI Now] Manus Leaves Meta, Launches Counterattack as an AI Agent
OpenAI’s AI agents need to catch up
[UPDATE] Meta's Muse personal AI agent tops ChatGPT, Grok and Claude (first reported at 2026-09-21T18:28:51+0000)
I really wasn’t expecting @Meta to suddenly be leading the ai agent race. @Muse is SOOO good.
Meta Shares Boosted After Muse AI Agent Launch. • Meta’s shares jumped over 5% on Wednesday morning after the company launched an AI agent that can send emails, book trips and make payments.
META $META LAUNCHES MUSE, A PERSONAL AI AGENT • • The company says Muse does the work rather than just answering questions, handling tasks like sending email, booking travel, and negotiating on a user's behalf, and continuing after the app is closed. It runs on Muse Spark, which Meta calls its most capable model to date, and works through the Muse app or directly in WhatsApp. • • Muse runs on a dedicated cloud VM holding the agent, user data, and credentials. A separate Sentinel agent on the same machine must approve anything that reaches the internet, and Meta says Muse has no visibility into passwords or payment methods. • • It checks out through Link, built by Stripe, which Meta says makes it the first AI agent covered by Link's purchase protections. • • Rolling out in the US on iOS, Android, and muse .ai, free for most use with subscription plans above that.
Meta bets on AI agent Muse to catch up in AI race
META PLATFORMS $META IS PLANNING TO LAUNCH A CONSUMER AI AGENT IN THE COMING WEEKS • • The project internally named "Hatch "is the consumer version of Meta's internal OpenClaw AI agent. • • Meta is also targeting October for its next AI model, called "Watermelon." - The Information
Meta To Launch AI Agent Platform In Coming Weeks, Targets October - TIF • •
Exclusive: Meta Plans to Launch ‘Hatch’ AI Agent Platform in Coming Weeks
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.