Which company has best AI model end of July?
Resolved26as of
This hub tracks 26 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
14 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
DeepSeek Releases V4 Models Beta As AI Price War Heats Up – Nikkei •
DeepSeek releases beta version of V4 models as AI price war heats up
Moonshot launches AI model to compete with OpenAI and Anthropic #Arabic_Business
Chinese AI model Kimi K3 has caused shares of global industry leaders to plummet. Shares of companies in the semiconductor and AI sectors fell significantly after the presentation of a new product by Chinese startup Moonshot, Bloomberg reports. Moonshot said that the Kimi K3 model is comparable in capabilities to leading developments from OpenAI and Anthropic. The company also claims that its AI outperforms some competing models in a number of tests. Investors expressed concerns that the rapid development of Chinese AI developments could reduce the need for large-scale investments by American companies in computing infrastructure and advanced chips. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
Chinese AI firm Moonshot unveils powerful model with capabilities close to Anthropic, OpenAI
China's Moonshot AI gains on Anthropic, OpenAI with new low-cost model
Chinese startup Moonshot AI unveils Kimi model it says rivals OpenAI, Anthropic
Chinese startup Moonshot AI unveils Kimi model it says rivals OpenAI, Anthropic
Chinese AI Start-Up Moonshot to Launch Model Challenging Anthropic’s Lead-FT
META IS BACK IN THE AI MODEL ARENA folks. Stop with the false narratives.
Meta says its new AI model is ready to compete on coding
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.