Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

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Market pricing makes Google the favorite at 43% across 26 tracked outcomes, as of .

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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

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What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

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POLYMARKET ODDS GOOGLE HAS THE BEST AI MODEL AT THE END OF 2026 ARE AT 43%, PASSING ANTHROPIC • • Anthropic sits at 41% and OpenAI at 7%, on roughly $2.357M in volume. • • Anthropic led at 52% to Google's 41% on October 1. Google was near 10% until late September and announced Gemini 4 Argon on September 30.
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France’s Mistral Unveils 1 Trillion-Parameter Open AI Model… “Surpasses Chinese Competitors”
Mistral launches an AI model that outperforms "many competing models" #Here_is_the_Kingdom
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France's Mistral Unveils Open AI Model... "Surpasses Chinese Competitors"
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French AI startup Mistral has unveiled a new model, ending a gap of nearly five months between its major releases. The company claims the new model outperforms many competing models. Founded three years ago, Mistral is widely regarded as the biggest European competitor to US and Chinese AI companies, but it hadn't released a new model since May. #Arabic_Business
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French company Mistral: We have launched an artificial intelligence model that outperforms Chinese competitors.
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After months of waiting, Mistral releases a new AI model to keep Europe in the race
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AI: A breakthrough? Mistral releases new top-of-the-line model
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Mistral unveils new AI model it says rivals best open systems from China
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Anthropic unveils first model since call to slow AI
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While its CEO has called for a slowdown in AI development, Anthropic is launching a powerful and less expensive new model.
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Anthropic is launching a new AI model designed to accomplish a wide range of business tasks at a lower cost, as the startup seeks to stay ahead of the competition before its initial public offering. The new model, called Claude Opus 5.5, offers performance similar to Fable 5.1, but at a significantly lower cost. According to the company, the new model produces output faster than Opus 5, and tests have shown it writes more clearly. Anthropic plans to expand the 5.5 model family with the release of new versions of Claude Sonnet and Haiku in the coming weeks. #Arabic_Business
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While its CEO has called for a slowdown in AI development, Anthropic is launching a powerful and less expensive new model.
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Anthropic CEO: The company will slow down the pace of AI model development.
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DeepSeek announces new AI model; improved performance and lowered fees
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DeepSeek announces new AI model; improved performance but lower fees.
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AI: OpenAI releases more powerful AI model ChatGPT-6
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OpenAI releases more powerful AI model ChatGPT-6
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OPENAI'S PRESIDENT SAYS AGI MAY HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED, AND THAT THIS IS THE MODEL • • Greg Brockman told reporters that in a couple of years, when people look back and ask when AGI was created, he thinks the answer will be around now and possibly this model. • • OpenAI launched GPT-6 Astra Thursday and calls it the world's best computer use model. In the company's own tests it booked DMV appointments, searched job listings, and apartment hunted faster than the average person. • • Rollout starts with enterprise clients in the Daybreak early access program, then ChatGPT Plus, Pro, and Business. No word on free users. • • OpenAI is racing toward a planned IPO. So is Anthropic.
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OPENAI SAYS IT HAS OVERTAKEN ANTHROPIC WITH ITS LATEST AI MODEL - Financial Times
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OpenAI says it has overtaken Anthropic with its latest AI model
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Meta's most powerful AI model is unveiled; Wang Tao: It catches up with Anthropic and surpasses GPT-5.6 Sol.
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Meta to open source its most powerful AI model as it takes swipe at OpenAI, Anthropic
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Meta launches new AI in push for best open source model to beat China
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Alibaba Just Gave Away Its Best AI Model For Free, Almost Matching Claude and ChatGPT
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Has China truly begun to surpass America in artificial intelligence? The question may seem shocking, but current events are prompting markets to ask it. Alibaba unveiled its Qwen 3.8 Max model, claiming it outperforms Anthropic's most powerful models in some tests. Months ago, many predicted that US chip restrictions would slow China down, but the opposite occurred: DeepSec, then Kemei, and now Alibaba, all at a surprisingly rapid pace. Alibaba's stock jumped more than 7% after the announcement. If China is advancing this quickly despite the restrictions, what would happen if they disappeared one day? @mayaj_bn #Arabic_Business
Amazon is proving you don't need the best model to win the AI race
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China's Moonshot AI Opens Top AI Model... Head-to-Head Battle with OpenAI and Antropic
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Anthropic is rolling out a new AI model called Claude Opus 5 that is meant to handle everyday workplace tasks in a cost efficent way - Bloomberg
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Anthropic Releases Opus 5 AI Model with Fable 5-Like Capabilities at Half the Price, Company Says

What is this event about?

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

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