Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Open26as of
Market pricing makes Anthropic the favorite at 70% across 26 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
25 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Meta to open source its most powerful AI model as it takes swipe at OpenAI, Anthropic
Meta launches new AI in push for best open source model to beat China
Alibaba Just Gave Away Its Best AI Model For Free, Almost Matching Claude and ChatGPT
Has China truly begun to surpass America in artificial intelligence? The question may seem shocking, but current events are prompting markets to ask it. Alibaba unveiled its Qwen 3.8 Max model, claiming it outperforms Anthropic's most powerful models in some tests. Months ago, many predicted that US chip restrictions would slow China down, but the opposite occurred: DeepSec, then Kemei, and now Alibaba, all at a surprisingly rapid pace. Alibaba's stock jumped more than 7% after the announcement. If China is advancing this quickly despite the restrictions, what would happen if they disappeared one day?
@mayaj_bn #Arabic_Business
Amazon is proving you don't need the best model to win the AI race
China's Moonshot AI Opens Top AI Model... Head-to-Head Battle with OpenAI and Antropic
Anthropic is rolling out a new AI model called Claude Opus 5 that is meant to handle everyday workplace tasks in a cost efficent way - Bloomberg
Anthropic Releases Opus 5 AI Model with Fable 5-Like Capabilities at Half the Price, Company Says
Alibaba's stock price rose as much as 5.6% in Hong Kong trading on Monday. This followed the company's pre-release of a new large language model, which it claimed would perform only slightly better than Anthropic's Fable 5.
Moonshot launches AI model to compete with OpenAI and Anthropic #Arabic_Business
Chinese company Moonshot AI has launched its open-source artificial intelligence model, Kimi K3, asserting that it rivals the latest models from American companies at a lower cost, with capabilities for data analysis, software development, website creation, video editing, and efficient execution of complex tasks.
Chinese AI Startup Moonshot Unveils Kimi K3 Model—Will It Challenge OpenAI And Anthropic?. • The Chinese startup called its AI model the “new frontier of intelligence.”
Chinese AI firm Moonshot unveils powerful model with capabilities close to Anthropic, OpenAI
China's Moonshot AI gains on Anthropic, OpenAI with new low-cost model
Chinese startup Moonshot AI unveils Kimi model it says rivals OpenAI, Anthropic
Chinese startup Moonshot AI unveils Kimi model it says rivals OpenAI, Anthropic
Chinese AI Start-Up Moonshot to Launch Model Challenging Anthropic’s Lead-FT
META IS BACK IN THE AI MODEL ARENA folks. Stop with the false narratives.
Meta says its new AI model is ready to compete on coding
Exclusive: Alexandr Wang says Meta's coming AI has caught up with OpenAI's flagship model
ANALYSIS-A new, inexpensive Chinese AI model is catching up with Anthropic, OpenAI on their home turf
Artificial Intelligence: US government lifts blockade on Anthropic's AI models
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.