Where will a 6.0+ earthquake occur by end of August?
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Market pricing makes Peru the favorite at 100% across 7 tracked outcomes, as of .
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Magnitude 6.1 earthquake occurred off the coast east of Sendai, Miyagi Prefecture, Japan
The Peruvian government has declared a 60-day state of emergency in five districts of Ayacucho affected by the 7.2 magnitude earthquake on August 20. #Peru #teleSUR #Aug24
Peru declares a state of emergency in five districts of Ayacucho after a 7.2 magnitude earthquake left nearly 500 affected and three injured. #teleSUR #Peru #Ayacucho
Peru has declared a state of emergency in five districts of Ayacucho following the 7.2 magnitude earthquake. The measure will be in effect for 60 days to assist 500 people affected. Affected districts: Chumpi, Coracora, Pullo, Upahuacho, and Carapo. How can you help? #teleSUR #Peru #Ayacucho
What is this event about?
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."