When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?

OpenOutcomes4as of

Market pricing makes No return before November 1, 2026 the favorite at 57% across 4 tracked outcomes, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

No return before November 1, 202657%
October 1 - 31, 202643%
Before September 15, 20260%
September 15 - 30, 20260%

What moved the odds?

10 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

No return before November 1, 2026Saba News Agency92%match71¢-20%
Record low water level in the Rhine disrupts navigation in Germany The German Inland Shipping Association warned on Tuesday that navigation is impossible for most cargo ships in parts of the Rhine River, after water levels dropped to an unprecedented record low due to months of drought and high temperatures. #Saba_News_Agency 𝕏 | ⓕ | ✆ t.me/Saba_Newsye
No return before November 1, 2026spiegel.de91%match71¢-20%
Low water levels on the Rhine: Düsseldorf Rhine ferry announces short-time work
No return before November 1, 2026spiegel.de92%match65¢-12%
Rhine level near Cologne reaches historic low
No return before November 1, 2026dpa.com91%match64¢-11%
Rhine reaches record low in Cologne
No return before November 1, 2026Belarus State News Agency94%match60¢-5%
The Rhine River's water level has dropped to a record low.
September 15 - 30, 2026Belarus State News Agency92%match100¢
The Rhine River's water level has dropped to a record low.
No return before November 1, 2026vesti.ru96%match60¢-5%
The Rhine River's water level has reached a new all-time low.
September 15 - 30, 2026vesti.ru94%match100¢
The Rhine River's water level has reached a new all-time low.
No return before November 1, 2026rbc.ru96%match60¢-5%
The Rhine River's water level has reached a new all-time low.
September 15 - 30, 2026rbc.ru94%match100¢
The Rhine River's water level has reached a new all-time low.

What is this event about?

This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market. The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period. If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).