When will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran?
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Market pricing makes December 31 the favorite at 6% across 5 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Iranian military official: Footage of Mojtaba Khamenei in public places, on the streets, and during meetings with military personnel will be released. ==== The Iranian news agency quoted the deputy commander of the Iranian Basij forces on Sunday as saying that footage of Mojtaba Khamenei in public places and during meetings with commanders will be released later. The Iranian Fars News Agency had previously reported details from the office of the Iranian Supreme Leader regarding his meeting with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. The announcement comes days after press leaks indicated that a "secret meeting" took place between Pezeshkian and Khamenei. According to the "Iran International" website, Pezeshkian was taken to a secret location, and the meeting reportedly took place inside a car with tinted windows, under conditions in which the president could not clearly see Mojtaba Khamenei. From Al Arabiya
Mohammad Hadi Fallahzadeh, president of the International University of Islamic Studies, said in an interview with Jamaran News Agency on Thursday, August 28: "There was a rumor about Mojtaba Khamenei, which later turned out to be about a businessman with the same name who works abroad." He also said, "Mojtaba Khamenei is very noble, and this is not being noble." Referring to the assassinations attributed to Mossad, Fallahzadeh said, "Mossad is the strongest service in assassination, and if it does not have influence, it cannot assassinate." He added that there is influence, but not in the sense that every critic or anyone who speaks is considered influential.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.