When will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally?
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Market pricing makes March 31 the favorite at 10% across 3 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Live: Jordan Bardella, president of the National Rally, who has held the position for four years, is guaranteed to remain at the head of the party: Marine Le Pen's chosen successor, slated to become Prime Minister if she wins the presidency...
Live: Jordan Bardella, president of the National Rally, who has held the position for four years, is guaranteed to remain at the head of the party: Marine Le Pen's chosen successor, slated to become Prime Minister if she wins the presidency...
As the sole candidate for re-election, Jordan Bardella is guaranteed to remain president of the National Rally.
As the sole candidate for re-election, Jordan Bardella is guaranteed to remain president of the National Rally.
National Rally: Jordan Bardella the sole candidate for re-election as party president
National Rally: Jordan Bardella the sole candidate for re-election as party president
Jordan Bardella, the sole candidate for re-election as head of the National Rally
Jordan Bardella, the sole candidate for re-election as head of the National Rally
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jordan Bardella leaves the National Rally by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes leaving the National Rally, affiliating with any other political party, or renouncing National Rally and becoming an independent. An official announcement from Bardella stating that he is leaving National Rally will qualify, regardless of when the change takes effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be an official announcement from Bardella or National Rally. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.