When will Iran target Ukraine?
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Tehran has abandoned strikes on Ukraine after Kyiv's "apology," adviser to Iran's supreme leader Mohsen Rezaei claims that Iran was allegedly considering strikes on three targets in Ukraine, but later abandoned these plans. The Ukrainian authorities have not yet commented on these statements. Recall that in late July, Iran accused Ukraine of attacking an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea after Volodymyr Zelensky reported the destruction of vessels involved in transporting military cargo from Iran to Russia. Add News.LIVE as a reliable news source on Google
Tehran has abandoned strikes on Ukraine after Kyiv's "apology," adviser to Iran's supreme leader Mohsen Rezaei claims that Iran was allegedly considering strikes on three targets in Ukraine, but later abandoned these plans. The Ukrainian authorities have not yet commented on these statements. Recall that in late July, Iran accused Ukraine of attacking an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea after Volodymyr Zelensky reported the destruction of vessels involved in transporting military cargo from Iran to Russia. Add News.LIVE as a reliable news source on Google
A senior adviser to Iran's supreme leader, Rezaei, said that Tehran was preparing strikes on three sites in Ukraine, but canceled them allegedly after Kyiv apologized. The Ukrainian authorities have not yet commented on this statement. On July 25, Zelensky reported that the Defense Forces had struck ships carrying Russian military cargo from Iran. After that, Tehran accused Ukraine of trying to "expand the conflict," while Kyiv stressed that the actions were aimed solely at countering Russian aggression. During a conversation with his Ukrainian counterpart, the Iranian Foreign Minister said that the country does not want escalation.
Iran was preparing to strike three targets in Ukraine, but abandoned these plans "after Kyiv's apology," said Mohsen Rezai, an adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader. According to him, Ukraine will still have to answer for the strike on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea. Subscribe to Kommersant on MAX | on Telegram
Iran was preparing to strike three targets in Ukraine, but abandoned these plans "after Kyiv's apology," said Mohsen Rezai, an adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader. According to him, Ukraine will still have to answer for the strike on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea. Subscribe to Kommersant on MAX | on Telegram
Within a few days, the Islamic Republic threatened three European countries, Britain, Bulgaria, and Ukraine. Tehran warned Bulgaria about military cooperation with the United States, described Britain as a "legitimate target" if it supports Washington, and said that Ukraine's attack on an Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea would not go unanswered. These positions have been raised while the Islamic Republic has directly targeted the territory of at least 11 countries in the region since January 1402.
Within a few days, the Islamic Republic threatened three European countries, Britain, Bulgaria, and Ukraine. Tehran warned Bulgaria about military cooperation with the United States, described Britain as a "legitimate target" if it supports Washington, and said that Ukraine's attack on an Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea would not go unanswered. These positions have been raised while the Islamic Republic has directly targeted the territory of at least 11 countries in the region since January 1402.
NYT: Iran wanted to strike a Ukrainian port with ballistic missiles Some people familiar with the intelligence said they expected Iran to launch a ballistic missile with a small warhead at Ukraine to provide a symbolic warning but cause relatively little damage. It is noted that any missile launched from Iran towards Ukraine would escalate the conflict and could provoke an expansion of the war subscribe
NYT: Iran wanted to strike a Ukrainian port with ballistic missiles Some people familiar with the intelligence said they expected Iran to launch a ballistic missile with a small warhead at Ukraine to provide a symbolic warning but cause relatively little damage. It is noted that any missile launched from Iran towards Ukraine would escalate the conflict and could provoke an expansion of the war subscribe
Iran considered striking a seaport in Ukraine in retaliation for the attack on an Iranian ship, but diplomatic efforts helped ease tensions, The New York Times reported, citing Iranian and Western officials. According to the interlocutors, Tehran, according to intelligence, was planning to fire a ballistic missile at Ukraine in a "symbolic strike to cause relatively little damage." Any missile fired from Iran at Ukraine would have meant a sharp escalation and threatened to provoke a larger-scale conflict between the two countries, the newspaper notes. Iranian officials hoped that the conflict would end with their retaliatory strike, but the West warned that it was difficult to predict how Ukraine would react, the NYT writes. RBK channel on "Max"
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Iran considered striking a seaport in Ukraine in retaliation for the attack on an Iranian ship, but diplomatic efforts helped ease tensions, The New York Times reported, citing Iranian and Western officials. According to the interlocutors, Tehran, according to intelligence, was planning to fire a ballistic missile at Ukraine in a "symbolic strike to cause relatively little damage." Any missile fired from Iran at Ukraine would have meant a sharp escalation and threatened to provoke a larger-scale conflict between the two countries, the newspaper notes. Iranian officials hoped that the conflict would end with their retaliatory strike, but the West warned that it was difficult to predict how Ukraine would react, the NYT writes. RBK channel on "Max"
RBK app for iOS and Android
Iran was considering a retaliatory strike on a Ukrainian port, The New York Times reported, citing sources. Tehran was considering launching a ballistic missile with a small warhead to demonstrate its position but cause "relatively little damage." One of Ukraine's Black Sea ports could have been the target. On July 25, the Islamic Republic's Foreign Ministry announced that the Ukrainian army attacked an Iranian merchant ship in the Caspian Sea. An explosion on board killed one sailor and wounded another. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
Iran was considering a retaliatory strike on a Ukrainian port, The New York Times reported, citing sources. Tehran was considering launching a ballistic missile with a small warhead to demonstrate its position but cause "relatively little damage." One of Ukraine's Black Sea ports could have been the target. On July 25, the Islamic Republic's Foreign Ministry announced that the Ukrainian army attacked an Iranian merchant ship in the Caspian Sea. An explosion on board killed one sailor and wounded another. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
Iran was considering striking a seaport in Ukraine, The New York Times reported, citing sources. Tehran wanted to respond to Ukraine's attack on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea. Negotiations helped reduce tensions between the countries, the newspaper writes. The newspaper's sources expected Iran to launch a low-yield ballistic missile at one of Ukraine's Black Sea ports—"for a symbolic response," without attempting to cause significant damage. Iran believes this would help end the conflict between the countries, while Western officials told the newspaper that it could lead to further escalation. Subscribe to Kommersant on MAX | on Telegram
Iran was considering striking a seaport in Ukraine, The New York Times reported, citing sources. Tehran wanted to respond to Ukraine's attack on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea. Negotiations helped reduce tensions between the countries, the newspaper writes. The newspaper's sources expected Iran to launch a low-yield ballistic missile at one of Ukraine's Black Sea ports—"for a symbolic response," without attempting to cause significant damage. Iran believes this would help end the conflict between the countries, while Western officials told the newspaper that it could lead to further escalation. Subscribe to Kommersant on MAX | on Telegram
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Ukraine through a qualifying military action between market creation and the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Ukraine. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
A military action will be considered directed at Ukraine if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of Ukraine, including any internal waters.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.