What will Trump post this week? (July 20 - July 26)

ResolvedOutcomes17as of

This hub tracks 17 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

Crime100%
Rigged100%
Russia100%
China100%

What moved the odds?

8 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

President Xiiranintlbrk93%match100¢
Trump wrote on Truth Social that the Chinese president told him that the country's government and companies would not provide weapons to the Islamic Republic under any circumstances, and he believed this.
Trump on Truth Social : • • President Xi, at our recent meeting in Beijing, China, told me that he would not, under any circumstances, give or sell Weapons to the Islamic Republic of Iran — And that statement included Chinese Companies. Considering our relationship, I take him at his word and, besides, l am doing him very big favors, also. Likewise, President Putin, despite the horrible War going on in Ukraine (The relationship remains, as it does with President Zelenskyy), told me that he would not sell Weapons to Iran. He understands that I do not sell Weapons to Ukraine, but to NATO Countries. They pay full price, and how those Weapons are distributed, I have no idea. Therefore, two major Countries that people speak of often in terms of Iran are, in my opinion, not participating. If they did, it would be very bad for them — Certainly not in their best interests. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
UraniumN12/GLZ Reporters92%match17¢-100%
Trump on Truth Social: "The civil nuclear agreement (there will be no enrichment of material!) signed between the United States Department of Energy and Saudi Arabia, which concerns only non-military uses - such as those already in place in Iran, the United Arab Emirates (and other countries) - will be approved, but it is entirely conditional on Saudi Arabia joining the honorable and successful Abraham Accords. The United States is not opposed to civil nuclear facilities (without uranium enrichment)."
UraniumAxios Reporter92%match17¢-100%
Trump on Truth Social: "The civil nuclear agreement (there will be no enrichment of material!) signed between the United States Department of Energy and Saudi Arabia, which concerns only non-military uses - such as those already in place in Iran, the United Arab Emirates (and other countries) - will be approved, but it is entirely conditional on Saudi Arabia joining the honorable and successful Abraham Accords. The United States is not opposed to civil nuclear facilities (without uranium enrichment)."
UraniumReuters Reporter92%match18¢-100%
WASHINGTON, July 21 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump said the U.S. will be hitting the Pickaxe Mountain area, located near Iran's heavily damaged Natanz uranium enrichment facility, "pretty soon."
The World Cup Final: Trump, the Podium, and a People Standing Tall | Contracancha
World Cupnews.sky.com94%match95¢+5%
Live: Trump hails 'spectacular' World Cup
World CupRussian Media92%match62¢+61%
FWD from IZ.RU • IMPORTANT: We have collected the main news for this hour in the morning digest: Spain defeated Argentina in the 2026 World Cup final with a score of 1:0 and took the World Cup. Trump tried to attract the attention of the cameras by standing next to the Spanish national team during the presentation of the 2026 World Cup trophy, but the FIFA president pulled him aside; The FBI will no longer investigate cases related to the activities of the US immigration police, The New York Times reports, citing sources; The United States is planning a full-scale war with Iran after the news of the death of an American soldier in Iraq, The Washington Post reports, citing sources; Xi Jinping's visit to the United States is being prepared, despite Trump's allegations of Beijing's interference in the American elections, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said. Subscribe to IMPORTANT | More news here

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between July 20, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts/truths count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts/truths and reposts/reTruths will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. Any typeface and clear representation of the text will qualify. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for ‘hello’), will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). The resolution source for this market will be Donald Trump's verified Truth Social account: @realDonaldTrump Please note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Truth Social account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald Trump posts/truths from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.

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