What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
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Market pricing makes Over 2.5 the favorite at 84% across 5 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
WMO: El Nifio likely to strengthen, persist through Feb 2027 • The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in its monthly climate bulletin on Thursday that this year’s El Nifio is expected to strengthen further, peaking in December, and has a near-100% probability of persisting through February 2027. Its intensity could be among the strongest since 1950 and sea surface temperatures are likely to reach record levels. SSTs in the El Nifio core region—the tropical central and eastern Pacific—are forecast to be about 3.7°C above normal for Oct–Dec (6.7°F). (
WMO: El Nifio likely to strengthen, persist through Feb 2027 • The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in its monthly climate bulletin on Thursday that this year’s El Nifio is expected to strengthen further, peaking in December, and has a near-100% probability of persisting through February 2027. Its intensity could be among the strongest since 1950 and sea surface temperatures are likely to reach record levels. SSTs in the El Nifio core region—the tropical central and eastern Pacific—are forecast to be about 3.7°C above normal for Oct–Dec (6.7°F). (
WMO: El Nifio likely to strengthen, persist through Feb 2027 • The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in its monthly climate bulletin on Thursday that this year’s El Nifio is expected to strengthen further, peaking in December, and has a near-100% probability of persisting through February 2027. Its intensity could be among the strongest since 1950 and sea surface temperatures are likely to reach record levels. SSTs in the El Nifio core region—the tropical central and eastern Pacific—are forecast to be about 3.7°C above normal for Oct–Dec (6.7°F). (
WMO: El Nifio likely to strengthen, persist through Feb 2027 • The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in its monthly climate bulletin on Thursday that this year’s El Nifio is expected to strengthen further, peaking in December, and has a near-100% probability of persisting through February 2027. Its intensity could be among the strongest since 1950 and sea surface temperatures are likely to reach record levels. SSTs in the El Nifio core region—the tropical central and eastern Pacific—are forecast to be about 3.7°C above normal for Oct–Dec (6.7°F). (
El Niño will reach its peak between late 2026 and early 2027, with over a 90% probability of "very strong" intensity, warn six Brazilian federal agencies. #teleSUR #Brazil #Sep9
What is this event about?
This market resolves based on the peak RONI — the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as published in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms.
This market may resolve immediately once NOAA has published a RONI value that determines the peak: the "Over 2.5" outcome resolves "Yes" as soon as any listed season reaches +2.5°C or above. Any other outcome will not be confirmed until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value, since RONI can still rise in a later season and DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.