What will Kevin Warsh say during July Press Conference?
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This hub tracks 37 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
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Good day100%
Uncertainty100%
Restrictive100%
Dollar100%
North Star100%
Predecessor100%
Bet / Betting100%
Balance Sheet100%
Central Bank100%
Productivity100%
Shock100%
Pandemic100%
Oil0%
Trump0%
Iran0%
Tax0%
Dissent0%
All further outcomes (7 more):
Renovation · Good Afternoon · -No Qualifying Event- · Innovation · Progress · Holding · Spending
What moved the odds?
17 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Live: Warsh makes clear that his intent is not to surprise markets when asked about the uncertainty that percolated before this meeting. Heading into Wednesday, traders had priced in around 30 percent odds of a rate increase.
Live: In this surprisingly extended and philosophical opening statement, Warsh touches on the impact of surging A.I. investment, noting that the boom in capital expenditures is driving up prices for chips and other computer hardware. It might be “preparing the ground for future growth,” Warsh notes, but at the moment, it’s making the committee’s job harder.
Warsh Opens Press Conference Reaffirming Commitment to 2% Inflation -- WSJ
Warsh Opens Press Conference Reaffirming Commitment to 2% Inflation -- WSJ
Live: Notably, in his first news conference, Warsh said that he is focused on numbers “to the left of the decimal point,” which could have implied he would be satisfied with an inflation rate above 2 percent but less than 3 percent. He is making clear today that isn’t what he intended to communicate.
Live: Notably, in his first news conference, Warsh said that he is focused on numbers “to the left of the decimal point,” which could have implied he would be satisfied with an inflation rate above 2 percent but less than 3 percent. He is making clear today that isn’t what he intended to communicate.
WARSH: "Good day. My second FOMC committee meeting as chairman has come quickly. It's probably too early to call it a streak"
NEW: At dinner after day one of his first meeting as Fed chair, Kevin Warsh told his 18 colleagues he was launching five task forces to rethink how the Fed reads the economy. • • Chris Waller asked what the point was. Name who's on them, he said, and I'll tell you what they'll say.
From 'oil' to 'shock', here's what Kalshi traders expect Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will say this week
From 'oil' to 'shock', here's what Kalshi traders expect Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will say this week
Next week's Federal Reserve meeting will be one of the most unpredictable in years. A new round of oil price shocks and the pro-tightening camp urging rate hikes clash with moderate inflation data. And the meeting's chair, new Chairman Warsh, is unwilling to reveal his hand.
Next week's Federal Reserve meeting will be one of the most unpredictable in years. A new round of oil price shocks and the pro-tightening camp urging rate hikes clash with moderate inflation data. And the meeting's chair, new Chairman Warsh, is unwilling to reveal his hand.
On the July Fed meeting: "I can make a good case for either raising rates or not... They're just kind of stuck." • • Cooler inflation took the urgency out of a July hike, before Iran reignited. The hawks have a conviction right now that those inclined to wait may lack. Warsh hasn't tipped his hand (as of last week, even to some of his own colleagues). Why next week's meeting is shaping up as one of the most uncertain in quite a while.
Kevin Warsh has homed in on three key phrases. How Fed watchers interpret them
Kevin Warsh has homed in on three key phrases. How Fed watchers interpret them
Kevin Warsh has homed in on three key phrases. How Fed watchers interpret them
Warsh’s balance sheet consultants
What is this event about?
Kevin Warsh is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on July 29, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Warsh says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no such statement by Warsh happens by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.
For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf