VA-01 House Election Winner
Open8as of
Market pricing makes Shannon Taylor (D) the favorite at 56% across 8 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
ICYMI: Trump endorsed @RobWittman for reelection on Thursday evening, noting his vice chairmanship of the Armed Services Committee. • • Wittman hopes to be top HASC Republican if he wins his competitive reelection bid first.
Congressman Rob Wittman is doing a truly fantastic job representing the wonderful people of Virginia’s 1st Congressional District! As the Vice Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, Rob is working tirelessly to advance our America First Agenda. He understands the Wisdom and Courage required to Defend our Country, Support our Brave Military/Veterans, and Ensure PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH. In Congress, Rob is fighting tirelessly to Grow our Economy, Cut Taxes and Regulations, Promote MADE IN THE U.S.A., Advance American Energy DOMINANCE, Keep our now very Secure Border, SECURE, Stop Migrant Crime, and Protect our always under siege Second Amendment. Rob Wittman has my Complete and Total Endorsement for Re-Election — HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).