U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal
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Market pricing makes December 31 the favorite at 6% across 6 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
12 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
U.S. Opted for Arms Race by Refusing to Voluntarily Comply with the Start Treaty - TASS Cites Russian Diplomat
Statement by Yulia Zhdanova, Head of the Russian Federation Delegation to the Vienna Negotiations on Military Security and Arms Control, at the 1141st Meeting of the OSCE Forum for Security Co-operation, Vienna, 1 July 2026
There are no prospects for developing a nuclear deterrence agreement, says Shoigu.
US, RUSSIA CLOSING IN ON EXTENDING START NUCLEAR PACT: AXIOS
U.S. AND RUSSIA ARE CLOSING IN ON A DEAL TO CONTINUE TO OBSERVE EXPIRING NEW START ARMS CONTROL TREATY BEYOND ITS EXPIRATION ON THURSDAY - REPORTS
US, RUSSIA NEGOTIATE EXTENSION TO NEW START NUCLEAR PACT: AXIOS
U.S. AND RUSSIA NEGOTIATE EXTENSION TO NEW START NUCLEAR PACT - AXIOS
SCOOP: The U.S. and Russia are closing in on a deal to continue to observe the expiring New START arms control treaty beyond its expiration today
Russia and the United States are no longer bound by any limits on the size of their strategic nuclear arsenals after their last arms control treaty expired on February 5 with no agreement between them on what should come next
The last US nuclear weapons treaty with Russia is dying
The last US nuclear weapons treaty with Russia is dying
The last US-Russia nuclear treaty, New START, is just weeks away from expiring on February 5, and what comes next is uncertain. The two countries, preoccupied by the war in Ukraine, have not held any talks on a successor treaty
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between August 14, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability.
An extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement will not qualify.
Agreements that include both the United States and Russia as named parties—whether bilateral or as part of a broader multilateral framework—will qualify, provided the agreement directly addresses nuclear arms control.
The agreement does not need to be ratified or implemented for this market to resolve "Yes"; a formal announcement of a concluded agreement is sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department) and/or the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs). However, a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such an agreement has been reached will also qualify.