US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins (2 week pause)
Resolved5as of
This hub tracks 5 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Top Overnight News • • Trump on Wednesday suggested his Iran war might end after the mid-terms, but some of his top advisors warn it could last the duration of his presidency, potentially extending the conflict past Inauguration Day in January 2029. WSJ • • Donald Trump promised $5,000 for every US adult if Republicans retain Congress, which must be spent in the US and will cost well over $1 trillion. The move signaled mounting concern over affordability and fiscal discipline as voters sour on the economy and Iran war. BBG • • US Treasury Secretary Bessent touted tax cuts, job increases, trade rebalance and Trump accounts during his speech at the RNC Midterm Convention. • • Within weeks of Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, once Saudi Arabia’s primary export route for oil, the kingdom turned to Plan B: bypassing the strait by ramping up exports through pipelines to Red Sea. NYT • • The South Korean government is nearing the announcement of a major energy investment project in the U.S. to support America’s artificial-intelligence build-out, a long-awaited development of the trade deal struck between Washington and Seoul last year. The deal, potentially worth more than $100 billion, envisions South Korea financing the construction of up to eight nuclear power plants and a natural-gas project. WSJ • • The popularity of high-risk bets among investors looking to cash in on South Korea’s artificial-intelligence boom has caused concern at the central bank. A surge of investment in leveraged exchange-traded funds tied to tech titans such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix generated significant volatility in the domestic stock market, the Bank of Korea said, calling for stronger oversight and regulation of leveraged ETFs as they risk sowing instability. WSJ • • The ECB is widely expected to raise rates for the second time since the Iran war sent energy prices soaring. The focus will be on signals from Christine Lagarde as markets see at least two more hikes. BBG • • The Bank of Japan may eventually be forced to raise interest rates rapidly if inflation accelerates given the country's loose financial conditions, board member Kazuyuki Masu said, warning of price risks that solidify the chance of a September hike. In a closely watched speech ahead of next week's policy meeting, Masu warned of broadening price pressures that have pushed underlying inflation "very close" to its 2% target. Reuters • • US PPI likely firmed in August after a renewed pickup in commodity prices. Consensus expects a 0.4% monthly increase. BBG • • TSM reported record monthly revenue for August on Thursday, as demand for chips used in artificial intelligence applications remained strong. The world’s largest contract chipmaker posted revenue of $514.8 billion New Taiwan dollars ($16.35 billion) for last month, up 53.3% from a year earlier and 10.1% from July. CNBC • • BofA Total Card Spending (w/e 5th Sept) +7.8% Y/Y (prev. +3.7% W/W). BofA said that the surge in spending growth was likely due to base effects from the shift in Labour Day timing and a rebound in gas prices. • • A US AI safety bill could be introduced next week, Semafor reported citing sources. • • A US Republican-led Senate subcommittee is investigating OpenAI's handling of the Hugging Face breach in July, Axios reported. • • S&P500 EPS growth in Q2 2026 was ~30% year / year excluding the "other income" related to some private investment stakes. Earnings for the hyperscalers and the AI infrastructure companies benefiting from their capex spending increased by 54% year / year in Q2, accounting for about 50% of S&P 500 EPS growth during the quarter. However, earnings growth for the rest of the market has also been strong and accelerating. Excluding the Energy sector profits that were boosted by higher oil prices, the rest of the S&P 500 posted year/year EPS growth of 14%: GS FICC
The US President said on Wednesday, September 8, that in his view, the war with Iran will end "immediately" after the US midterm elections. Donald Trump told reporters before leaving for Dallas to attend the Republican Party convention: "I think the war will end immediately after the election. Because they (Iran) can't last anymore." Trump added about the situation in Iran: "They are desperate and they are trying to influence the election." In response to a question about the widespread attacks by both sides around the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said: "The attacks were carried out by us. We hit nine of their oil tankers. There are going to be more attacks." @VahidHeadline @VahidOnline
Last night's war reached the heart of America; Trump's "Black September" was launched The developments of the past 48 hours show that "Black September" for American markets could turn from a theoretical warning into a real scenario. The US attacks on Iran, Tehran's response and Trump's threat to escalate attacks have simultaneously put pressure on oil, debt and stock markets. Brent has reached the $95 level and the yield on 10-year US bonds has also increased to around 4.8%. The market is now not only pricing in the attack; it has also factored in the possibility of a continuation of the war and increased energy risk. More expensive oil could exacerbate inflation, make it more difficult to cut interest rates and, by increasing the cost of capital, transfer pressure from the bond market to stocks and the real economy. Meanwhile, Trump is facing a political paradox: a war that was supposed to increase pressure on Iran has transferred its economic costs to the United States. If oil, inflation and the cost of living remain high in the coming weeks, "Black September" could become a political bill for Trump in November. Read the full text at the link below: @Nournews_IR
Last night's war reached the heart of America; Trump's "Black September" was launched The developments of the past 48 hours show that "Black September" for American markets could turn from a theoretical warning into a real scenario. The US attacks on Iran, Tehran's response and Trump's threat to escalate attacks have simultaneously put pressure on oil, debt and stock markets. Brent has reached the $95 level and the yield on 10-year US bonds has also increased to around 4.8%. The market is now not only pricing in the attack; it has also factored in the possibility of a continuation of the war and increased energy risk. More expensive oil could exacerbate inflation, make it more difficult to cut interest rates and, by increasing the cost of capital, transfer pressure from the bond market to stocks and the real economy. Meanwhile, Trump is facing a political paradox: a war that was supposed to increase pressure on Iran has transferred its economic costs to the United States. If oil, inflation and the cost of living remain high in the coming weeks, "Black September" could become a political bill for Trump in November. Read the full text at the link below: @Nournews_IR
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET).
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
A military action will be considered to impact Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the action will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and credible reporting.