US GDP growth in Q3 2026?
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Market pricing makes ≥3.0% the favorite at 72% across 7 tracked outcomes, as of .
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Goldman: "the US economy grew at a 3.4% pace in Q3 and forecast 2.2% growth in 2026 overall on a Q4/Q4 basis, close to our 2.3% estimate of potential GDP growth and only 0.3pp below our start-of-the-year forecast when we did not expect large increases in interest rates and oil prices."
Goldman: "the US economy grew at a 3.4% pace in Q3 and forecast 2.2% growth in 2026 overall on a Q4/Q4 basis, close to our 2.3% estimate of potential GDP growth and only 0.3pp below our start-of-the-year forecast when we did not expect large increases in interest rates and oil prices."
ATLANTA FED GDPNOW SURGES ABOVE 5% • • The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q3 growth jumped to 5.1% from 4.42%, driven largely by stronger consumer spending after today’s retail sales data. • • Real consumption is now expected to contribute 2.83 percentage points, while private domestic final purchases are tracking at a powerful 4.7%. • • Market angle: exceptionally strong growth complicates the Fed outlook, reinforcing the case for tighter policy as inflation remains elevated.
ATLANTA FED GDPNOW SURGES ABOVE 5% • • The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q3 growth jumped to 5.1% from 4.42%, driven largely by stronger consumer spending after today’s retail sales data. • • Real consumption is now expected to contribute 2.83 percentage points, while private domestic final purchases are tracking at a powerful 4.7%. • • Market angle: exceptionally strong growth complicates the Fed outlook, reinforcing the case for tighter policy as inflation remains elevated.
ATLANTA FED GDPNOW SURGES ABOVE 5% • • The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q3 growth jumped to 5.1% from 4.42%, driven largely by stronger consumer spending after today’s retail sales data. • • Real consumption is now expected to contribute 2.83 percentage points, while private domestic final purchases are tracking at a powerful 4.7%. • • Market angle: exceptionally strong growth complicates the Fed outlook, reinforcing the case for tighter policy as inflation remains elevated.
ATLANTA FED GDPNOW SURGES ABOVE 5% • • The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q3 growth jumped to 5.1% from 4.42%, driven largely by stronger consumer spending after today’s retail sales data. • • Real consumption is now expected to contribute 2.83 percentage points, while private domestic final purchases are tracking at a powerful 4.7%. • • Market angle: exceptionally strong growth complicates the Fed outlook, reinforcing the case for tighter policy as inflation remains elevated.
ATLANTA FED GDPNOW SURGES ABOVE 5% • • The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q3 growth jumped to 5.1% from 4.42%, driven largely by stronger consumer spending after today’s retail sales data. • • Real consumption is now expected to contribute 2.83 percentage points, while private domestic final purchases are tracking at a powerful 4.7%. • • Market angle: exceptionally strong growth complicates the Fed outlook, reinforcing the case for tighter policy as inflation remains elevated.
ATLANTA FED GDPNOW SURGES ABOVE 5% • • The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q3 growth jumped to 5.1% from 4.42%, driven largely by stronger consumer spending after today’s retail sales data. • • Real consumption is now expected to contribute 2.83 percentage points, while private domestic final purchases are tracking at a powerful 4.7%. • • Market angle: exceptionally strong growth complicates the Fed outlook, reinforcing the case for tighter policy as inflation remains elevated.
NEW YORK FED BOOSTS Q3 GDP OUTLOOK • • The New York Fed raised its Q3 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.3%, up from 2.14%. • • The upgrade was driven by stronger-than-expected building permits and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey. • • The Fed sees a 50% probability range of 1.1%–3.4%, while the wider 80% range stands at 0.0%–4.5%.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.