U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?

OpenOutcomes1as of

Market pricing makes U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? the favorite at 8%, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?8%

What moved the odds?

6 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

YESThe Wall Street Journal98%match32¢-75%
Trump administration officials are seeking to recruit a multinational force of around 10,000 troops under a U.S. general to stabilize postwar Gaza
YESJennifer Griffin98%match32¢-75%
Trump administration officials want to recruit around 10,000 troops under a U.S. general to stabilize postwar Gaza, officials say, but some governments are reluctant to commit to a mission that could expand to disarming Hamas.
YESCGTN America98%match32¢-75%
U.S CENTCOM WILL HOST DOHA CONFERENCE ON DECEMBER 16 WITH PARTNER NATIONS TO PLAN THE INTERNATIONAL STABILIZATION FORCE FOR GAZA - U.S. OFFICIALS
YESAxios98%match32¢-75%
Scoop: The Trump administration is planning to appoint an American two-star general to command the International Stabilization Force (ISF) in Gaza. My story on @axios
YESAxios98%match30¢-73%
Scoop: Trump plans to appoint U.S. general to lead Gaza security force
YESAxios98%match30¢-73%
Trump plans to appoint U.S. general to lead Gaza security force

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify. High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Related events