Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory
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Market pricing makes December 31, 2026 the favorite at 4% across 3 tracked outcomes, as of .
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European Union leaders will decide on December 18 how to finance Ukraine in 2026 and 2027 to keep it fighting Russia's invasion, with the use of Russian assets frozen in the EU the preferred option, but hinging on Belgium's uncertain approval
Ukraine Urges Aid While Claiming Russia Seeks to Prolong Conflict Into 2026
ZELENSKIY SAYS UKRAINE WILL NOT RECOGNIZE DONBAS AS RUSSIAN EITHER DE JURE OR DE FACTO
ZELENSKIY SAYS UKRAINE WILL NOT RECOGNIZE DONBAS AS RUSSIAN EITHER DE JURE OR DE FACTO
ZELENSKIY SAYS UKRAINE WILL NOT RECOGNIZE DONBAS AS RUSSIAN EITHER DE JURE OR DE FACTO
ZELENSKIY SAYS UKRAINE WILL NOT RECOGNIZE DONBAS AS RUSSIAN EITHER DE JURE OR DE FACTO
Territory will be key to any Ukraine peace deal. Here's why
Territory will be key to any Ukraine peace deal. Here's why
Ukraine and U.S. divided over territory after intense negotiations
Ukraine and U.S. divided over territory after intense negotiations
U.S. OFFICIAL SAYS FINAL DECISION ON TERRITORY WILL BE UP TO UKRAINE
U.S. OFFICIAL SAYS FINAL DECISION ON TERRITORY WILL BE UP TO UKRAINE
U.S. OFFICIAL: FINAL DECISION ON TERRITORY WILL BE UP TO UKRAINE
Ukrainians Have Made It Clear That They Will Not Cede Territory
Ukrainians Have Made It Clear That They Will Not Cede Territory
Zelenskiy floats a referendum on territorial control as Ukraine comes under US pressure to agree to a peace deal with Putin
Russian troops capture two villages in Ukraine, defence ministry says
[Replying to @cgtnamerica] US STATE DEPT: UMEROV REAFFIRMED THAT UKRAINE'S PRIORITY IS SECURING A SETTLEMENT THAT PROTECTS ITS INDEPENDENCE AND SOVEREIGNTY >
[Replying to @cgtnamerica] US STATE DEPT: UMEROV REAFFIRMED THAT UKRAINE'S PRIORITY IS SECURING A SETTLEMENT THAT PROTECTS ITS INDEPENDENCE AND SOVEREIGNTY >
US STATE DEPT: UMEROV REAFFIRMED THAT UKRAINE'S PRIORITY IS SECURING A SETTLEMENT THAT PROTECTS ITS INDEPENDENCE AND SOVEREIGNTY
31 years ago today, on December 5, 1994, Ukraine signed the Budapest Memorandum and gave up the world's third-largest nuclear arsenal in exchange for security guarantees. Twenty years later, in 2014, one of those guarantors became an aggressor. The Budapest Memorandum was meant…
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement.
An official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia.
The April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.