Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by August 31?
Open1as of
Market pricing makes Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by August 31? the favorite at 0%, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
11 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Zelensky: Ukraine will not seek alternatives outside of NATO.
Ukraine will be in NATO, or why Ambassador Zaluzhny is wrong Valery Zaluzhny's scandalous words that Ukraine will never be in NATO have caused a lot of controversy. Deputy General Director of RBC-Ukraine Volodymyr Kurennoy analyzed what exactly the ambassador is wrong about. Firstly, such statements from a serving diplomat directly contradict the Constitution of Ukraine. Secondly, the path to the Alliance has always been difficult: for a quarter of a century, society and politicians have wavered, and only the war finally determined the vector of the country's development. NATO has its bureaucratic problems, and joining during active hostilities is really unlikely. However, there is simply no alternative to protection in the Western system of collective security. Read only the essence from RBC-Ukraine on Google.
Former Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Zaluzhny stated that Ukraine will never join NATO.
Live: Ukraine will never join NATO, says ambassador to UK
Ukrainian Ambassador to London: Ukraine Will Never Join NATO Valery Zaluzhny, former commander of the Ukrainian army and current ambassador to the UK, announced that Ukraine has no chance of joining NATO under the current conditions. He said at a meeting of Ukrainian ambassadors that the country's armed forces are still far from NATO military standards and added: "Unfortunately, we will never join NATO." Zaluzhny also emphasized that NATO's structure and doctrine are incompatible with the current conditions of the Ukrainian army.
@TasnimNews
Ukrainian Ambassador to London: Ukraine Will Never Join NATO Valery Zaluzhny, former commander of the Ukrainian army and current ambassador to the UK, announced that Ukraine has no chance of joining NATO under the current circumstances. He said at a meeting of Ukrainian ambassadors that the country's armed forces are still far from NATO military standards and added: "Unfortunately, we will never join NATO." Zaluzhny also emphasized that NATO's structure and doctrine are incompatible with the current conditions of the Ukrainian army. Get the latest news:
Site | ETA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv
Former Ukrainian commander: We will never join NATO Ukrainian ambassador to the UK:
I know NATO very well. For about 12 years, I personally worked to ensure the adoption of NATO standards, and every year I listened to the myths that we were on the verge of joining NATO. Unfortunately, we will never join NATO! isna.ir/xdWQsH
@isna94
Ukraine will never join NATO, admitted Valeriy Zaluzhny, former commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the country's ambassador to the United Kingdom. "I know NATO very well. For about 12 years, I was personally involved in ensuring that we mastered NATO standards and listened every year to fairy tales about how we were about to join NATO. Unfortunately, we will never join!" he said. According to Zaluzhny, it will take NATO about 12 years to reach at least half the level of development of the Russian Armed Forces. More IZ RU news in MAX
No NATO kumbaya.
Live: Zelensky renews calls for Ukraine to join Nato
Live: Zelenskyy has pitched to join NATO before - will this be any different?
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.