Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei
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Market pricing makes December 31 the favorite at 2% across 4 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
21 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Trump: I'm 90% sure Mojtaba Khamenei is dead
Trump: I'm 90% sure Mojtaba Khamenei is dead
Trump: I'm 90% sure Mojtaba Khamenei is dead
Trump: I'm 90% sure Mojtaba Khamenei is dead
Trump: I'm 90% sure that Mojtaba Khamenei was killed
Trump: I'm 90% sure that Mojtaba Khamenei was killed
Trump: I'm 90% sure that Mojtaba Khamenei was killed
Trump: I am Iran's number one target to kill. This has been published and yesterday another list was published with my name at the top.
Trump: I am Iran's number one target to kill. This has been published and yesterday another list was published with my name at the top.
Trump: I'm at the top of Iran's assassination list
Trump: I'm at the top of Iran's assassination list
Trump: We might strike Iran tonight, and they could have been killed at Khamenei's funeral.
Trump: We might strike Iran tonight, and they could have been killed at Khamenei's funeral.
Trump: We might strike Iran tonight, and they could have been killed at Khamenei's funeral.
Trump: We might strike Iran tonight, and they could have been killed at Khamenei's funeral.
Iranian mourners call for vengeance on Trump during Khamenei funeral procession
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A meeting is defined as any encounter where both specified individuals are present and interact with each other in person.
An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.