Sweden Parliamentary Election: 4th Place
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This hub tracks 36 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
The leader of the Swedish Social Democratic Party: We are ahead and if these results continue, we will be able to form a new government.
Social Democrats ahead in Swedish election – outcome uncertain
Live: Exit poll suggest comfortable win for opposition parties and worse-than-expected result for far-right Sweden Democrats - snap analysis
URGENT: The Social Democrats are leading in the Swedish parliamentary elections with 28.4% of the vote - exit poll
Live: #SWEDEN The Social Democratic Party has come out on top in the Swedish parliamentary elections, with approximately 28.4% of the vote according to an exit poll published by the public broadcaster SVT...
Live: TV4 poll: Social Democrats to win, opposition to take power in Sweden
Sweden’s Liberals Party Seen Above Parliament’s 4% Threshold - Tv4 Election Day Poll
Sweden election race tightens as Liberals make parliament threshold, poll shows
What is this event about?
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.
If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).