South Dakota Senate Election Winner
Open13as of
Market pricing makes Mike Rounds (R) the favorite at 94% across 13 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
"Mike Rounds refuses to vote for -- or against -- the War" • • Independent challenger Brian Bengs is trying to pull an upset in U.S. Senate race in South Dakota • • Bengs says new polls show the race is within reach, amid a potential wave
Huh, Leading the Future — the AI super PAC — does spending for Mike Rounds in South Dakota.
DemocratSouth Dakota Secretary of State Monae Johnson (R) said Saturday she supports Democratic candidate Terrence Davis in the race to succeed her, breaking with her party’s backing of Republican nominee Heather Baxter. Johnson lost the GOP nomination to Baxter at the state’s Republican convention in June “The secretary of state must consider the law, the…93%match0¢
South Dakota GOP election official backs Democrat to succeed her
Republican who supervises South Dakota’s elections endorses a Democrat to succeed her
Republican who oversees South Dakota's elections endorses a Democrat in the race to succeed her
#SDSEN: Another internal poll from independent Brian Bengs' campaign shows a close race with GOP Sen. Mike Rounds (PPP; Sept. 8-9; 629 RVs; +/-3.9%): • • Rounds' campaign has dismissed the internals, though allies aren't taking chances. South Dakota Conservative PAC has been attacking Bengs on TV for the past week.
Rounds’ campaign responding after independent challenger Brian Bengs released an internal poll this morning showing them tied:
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Dakota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.