South Carolina Senate Election Winner
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Market pricing makes Darline Graham Nordone (R) the favorite at 85% across 13 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
‘Darline is not Lindsey’: Could a Graham really lose South Carolina for the GOP?
Dem-aligned GQR poll of #SC01 circulating among groups and viewed by me: • • House • Nancy Lacore (D) - 48% • Jenny Costa Honeycutt (R) - 45% • • Senate • Annie Andrews (D) - 51% • Darline Graham (R) - 40% • • Trump favorability • Fav - 42% • Unfav - 57% • • 400 LV, Sept. 30-Oct. 4
Dem-aligned GQR poll of #SC01 circulating among groups and viewed by me: • • House • Nancy Lacore (D) - 48% • Jenny Costa Honeycutt (R) - 45% • • Senate • Annie Andrews (D) - 51% • Darline Graham (R) - 40% • • Trump favorability • Fav - 42% • Unfav - 57% • • 400 LV, Sept. 30-Oct. 4
South Carolina is unexpectedly part of the larger Senate playing field. In DDHQ's forecast, Sen. Darline Graham (R) has a 7 in 10 chance of winning, making her a favorite to hold the seat for the GOP. But Democrat Annie Andrews has a shot at scoring an upset.
Barton Swaim in WSJ: South Carolina Could Go Blue • Democrat Annie Andrews is showing up. Darline Graham is nowhere to be found. • “Darline could be in trouble.” •
Barton Swaim in WSJ: South Carolina Could Go Blue • Democrat Annie Andrews is showing up. Darline Graham is nowhere to be found. • “Darline could be in trouble.” •
Republicans invest in South Carolina race as the definition of ‘longshot’ quickly changes
Live: Senate Leadership Fund putting $5M behind Darline Graham in South Carolina
GOP sending reinforcements to save a Senate seat in South Carolina was not on my October bingo card. SC has historically been a layup for Republicans even in blue years.
President Trump posted on Truth Social tonight slamming Democratic South Carolina Senate candidate @AnnieAndrewsMD as "Annie 'Trannie' Andrews." • • We reached out to the Andrews campaign and got this response: “As a mom and a pediatrician, I’m in this race to fight for my patients, my three kids, and South Carolina. And I’m going to work with anyone to put South Carolina first, because lowering costs and making life better for families across our state is going to take all of us working together. If you care more about your bills than the politics in Washington, this campaign is for you.” • • The latest @DDHQdata forecast shows @DarlineGrahamSC with 52% of the vote share and Annie Andrews with 48% of the vote share. • • South Carolina leans in favor of Graham.
President Trump posted on Truth Social tonight slamming Democratic South Carolina Senate candidate @AnnieAndrewsMD as "Annie 'Trannie' Andrews." • • We reached out to the Andrews campaign and got this response: “As a mom and a pediatrician, I’m in this race to fight for my patients, my three kids, and South Carolina. And I’m going to work with anyone to put South Carolina first, because lowering costs and making life better for families across our state is going to take all of us working together. If you care more about your bills than the politics in Washington, this campaign is for you.” • • The latest @DDHQdata forecast shows @DarlineGrahamSC with 52% of the vote share and Annie Andrews with 48% of the vote share. • • South Carolina leans in favor of Graham.
President Trump lashing out at South Carolina Democratic Senate nominee Annie Andrews. • • The Senate race is considered likely Republican.
Annie “Trannie” Andrews is running against our wonderful Darline Graham for the Senate in South Carolina. For years my dear friend Lindsey would say that, “Darline is the finest, most reliable, and one of the smartest people I have ever known.” He would then always add, “Also, the most loyal!” Oftentimes I would be upset with Lindsey for saying this, because I thought I had all of those qualities. In any event, Darline is a High Quality person, maybe the Highest, and Annie Trannie is not, in particular, as it pertains to representing the Values of the Great People of South Carolina — She is in favor of Transgender for Everyone, Open Borders, Defunding the Police, High Taxes, a Weak Military, and will absolutely fight to take your guns away — In other words, she is against our Great Second Amendment! Trannie is not for South Carolina, and South Carolina must show, in the upcoming Election, that it is not for her. VOTE FOR DARLINE GRAHAM — SHE HAS MY COMPLETE AND TOTAL ENDORSEMENT, AND WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Graham, Andrews neck and neck in South Carolina Senate race: Poll Sen. Darline Graham (R-S.C.) and her Democratic opponent, Annie Andrews, are locked in a dead heat in the race for South Carolina’s Senate seat, according to a new poll released Saturday evening. The survey, conducted by right-leaning polling firm Trafalgar Group, found Graham leading Andrews by just one point — with a just under three-point…
Leader Thune pushes back on Democratic talk that South Carolina Senate race is competitive, saying that Darline Graham “is gonna be fine.” • • Thune, however, says he will travel to South Carolina the week after next to provide support.
My conversation with @NancyMace from Wednesday. • • SK: Do you believe South Carolina Senate is in play? • • MACE: No. But Annie Andrews has a lot of money, so she might do better than the last guy—I forget his name. • • SK: Jaime Harrison. • • MACE: Jaime Harrison. Yeah, every time I go home, all I see are Annie Andrews ads. And all I see are the Democrat ads from the woman who's supposed to replace me. So the Democrats have money down there, and they are making a play. It's kind of amazing to see how many ads I see of them down there, back home in red South Carolina. They're spending a lot of money. • • SK: So you think Darline Graham is still going to win. • • MACE: Unless she tanks in a debate. • • SK: Like she did against Norman? • • MACE: *shrugs, walks onto House floor*
Likely Republican -> Leans Republican • • Republican Darline Graham remains the favorite in South Carolina's Senate race, but her odds have slipped from 87% last month to 74% now.
Dems going into SC Senate: New group putting $2.5 million into Annie Andrews in race against Sen. Darline Graham per @nicholaswu12 •
Republican odds of holding Lindsey Graham's South Carolina seat have decreased by 6.9% after his passing. • • 81% chance of a Republican victory — Polymarket
[Replying to @Polymarket] BREAKING: Democrats closing in on retaking control of the Senate this November. >
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.