Saudi troops fighting in Yemen

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Market pricing makes December 31, 2026 the favorite at 12% across 5 tracked outcomes, as of .

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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

8 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

FWD from Yemeni Military Media | MMY: Footage of repelling Saudi enemy reinforcements attempting to advance from Lahj towards the Al-Waziyah heights and clearing Wadi Sharirah and the surrounding mountains towards Al-Shamaitain - October 11, 2026
FWD from Yemeni Military Media | MMY: Footage of repelling Saudi enemy reinforcements attempting to advance from Lahj towards the Al-Waziyah heights and clearing Wadi Sharirah and the surrounding mountains towards Al-Shamaitain - October 11, 2026
FWD from Yemeni Military Media | MMY: Footage of targeting Saudi enemy reinforcements in Kahbub and Al-Waziyah with Shawaz attack drones - October 10, 2026
December 31, 2026nikkei.com92%match24¢-50%
[UPDATE] Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey deploy troops against the Houthis, activating "joint defense" (first reported at 2026-10-06T00:43:15.152579400Z)
October 10, 2026nikkei.com91%match3¢-100%
[UPDATE] Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey deploy troops against the Houthis, activating "joint defense" (first reported at 2026-10-06T00:43:15.152579400Z)
October 17, 2026nikkei.com93%match6¢-100%
[UPDATE] Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey deploy troops against the Houthis, activating "joint defense" (first reported at 2026-10-06T00:43:15.152579400Z)
October 31, 2026nikkei.com93%match14¢-100%
[UPDATE] Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey deploy troops against the Houthis, activating "joint defense" (first reported at 2026-10-06T00:43:15.152579400Z)
Saudi officers are leading the invasion of what remains of the homeland from the Yemeni provinces. Our people have responded in kind by shelling the Saudi heartland, and their stance has been effective in confronting the brutal aggression. The Saudis are crying out and pleading for help from others. — Leader, September 21, 2026

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if active military personnel officially affiliated with Saudi Arabia enter Yemen for combat-related military purposes by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, they must be 1) officially acknowledged as active military by Saudi Arabia; 2) be publicly acknowledged to have entered Yemen for a combat-related military purpose. For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution they need be active duty and acknowledged as described above. Participation in a combat role is necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes" (e.g. military personnel providing training or intelligence support would not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, however infantry engaging Yemeni forces, or personnel conducting combat operations from Yemeni soil would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution). Only members of the regular armed forces of Saudi Arabia will qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. Foreign fighters, private military contractors, mercenaries, or any other personnel recruited, paid, trained, equipped or directed by Saudi Arabia who are not members of the Saudi Arabian armed forces will not qualify, regardless of whether they operate under Saudi command or on Saudi Arabia’s behalf. Members of the armed forces of any other state, including those operating as part of a Saudi-led coalition, will not qualify. Personnel must be physically present on the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Air or naval operations conducted from outside Yemeni territory, including air strikes, missile strikes, drone strikes and overflights, will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Saudi Arabia, including the Saudi Ministry of Defense; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.