São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place
Open41as of
Market pricing makes Candidate S the favorite at 50% across 41 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
Candidate S50%
Candidate T50%
Candidate R50%
Candidate A50%
Candidate B50%
Candidate C50%
Candidate D50%
Candidate E50%
Candidate F50%
Candidate O50%
Candidate P50%
Candidate U50%
Candidate V50%
Candidate W50%
Candidate X50%
Candidate Y50%
Candidate Z50%
Other50%
Marina Silva12%
Salles3%
All further outcomes (11 more):
Guilherme Derrite · Simone Tebet · Candidate G · Candidate H · Candidate I · Candidate J · Candidate K · Candidate L · Candidate M · Candidate N · Candidate Q
What moved the odds?
A complete combined signal timeline is unavailable. The outcome odds above remain current to the stated time.
What is this event about?
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).