Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
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This hub tracks 1 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
21 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Bookmakers have raised the estimated probability of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine to 100% today, for the periods before the end of May, June, and by the end of 2026.
URGENT: Russia and the US negotiated a ceasefire with Ukraine for two days.
Trump touts three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine
Russia and Ukraine agree to extend the ceasefire until May 11.
The Kremlin: Russia has agreed to Trump's proposal for a ceasefire with Ukraine from May 9 to 11.
Trump: A three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine will begin on Saturday.
Live: Trump announces ceasefire in Ukraine
BREAKING: President Trump announces a three-day ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. The ceasefire is set to begin on May 9.
Trump: A three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine will begin on Saturday.
Trump: A three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine will begin on Saturday.
Ukraine accuses Russia of violating unilateral ceasefire
Ukraine Russia peace talks continue to be stuck and result in no deal.
Russia, Ukraine sit for tense talks on thorny territorial issue
Ukraine endures its bitterest winter as Russia targets heating and power
IAEA: Secured the agreement of both Russia and Ukraine to implement a localized ceasefire.
Ukraine reports explosions across the country as Russia launches another widespread aerial assault
Paris wheat nudged lower in the first trading session of 2026 as traders continue to parse multiple signals, including the negotiations to end the war in Ukraine and the impact of Europe’s frigid weather
Russia finished 2025 with what Ukraine described as an information operation designed to avoid engaging in peace talks and continue its war, despite suffering staggering casualties for meagre territorial gains this year. :
Majority of Russians expect Ukraine war to end in 2026, state survey finds
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.