Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
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Market pricing makes Below 190 the favorite at 24% across 10 tracked outcomes, as of .
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ICYMI Our latest newsletter asked, what House seats might go from red to blue in November? • • We dug into the 26 Republican-held House seats that will play a key role in determining the House majority.
As midterm elections approach, some rank-and-file House Republicans are starting to show independence from President Trump
[Replying to @LeadingReport] @LeadingReport Midterm balance of power outcomes: R Senate, D House - 47% Democrat Sweep - 37% Republican Sweep - 14% D Senate, R House - 2% > BREAKING: President Trump says VOTER ID will be federally mandated in the 2026 midterms with or without the SAVE America Act.
Democrats add five red-leaning House seats to their battleground map
Democrats add five red-leaning House seats to their battleground map
Democrats will take control of the House in November.
Democrats will take control of the House in November.
President Trump’s effort to push Republican state lawmakers to create more GOP-favorable House districts is on track to yield far fewer gains than expected
President Trump’s effort to push Republican state lawmakers to create more GOP-favorable House districts is on track to yield far fewer gains than expected
President Trump’s effort to push Republican state lawmakers to create more GOP-favorable House districts is on track to yield far fewer gains than expected
BREAKING: House Republican majority has shrunk to 218-214.
BREAKING: House Republican majority has shrunk to 218-214.
BREAKING: House Republican majority has shrunk to 218-214.
BREAKING: House Republican majority has shrunk to 218-214.
BREAKING: House Republican majority has shrunk to 218-214.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.