Number of North Korea Missile Tests in September 2026?

ResolvedOutcomes5as of

This hub tracks 5 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

2100%
<10%
10%
30%
4+0%

What moved the odds?

2 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

1apnews.com92%match4¢-100%
[UPDATE] North Korea fires a short-range ballistic missile toward the sea in its latest weapons display (first reported at 2026-09-20T06:31:04Z)
<1German Foreign Ministry92%match99¢+1%
The launch of ballistic missiles by North Korea on September 12th is yet another serious violation of UNSC resolutions, which we condemn in the strongest terms. We call on the DPRK to immediately cease its missile tests and its illegal nuclear weapons program.

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during September 2026, Pyongyang Time. If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began. Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify. Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify. Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.