Nuclear weapon detonation
Resolved3as of
This hub tracks 3 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
BREAKING: China reportedly developing new generation of nuclear weapons, conducted top secret test this month.
BREAKING: China reportedly developing new generation of nuclear weapons, conducted top secret test this month.
[Replying to @BRICSinfo] @BRICSinfo 20% chance a nuclear weapon is detonated in 2026. >
[Replying to @BRICSinfo] @BRICSinfo 20% chance a nuclear weapon is detonated in 2026. >
US has accused China of conducing clandestine low yield nuclear testing and has provided evidence-WSJ
US has accused China of conducing clandestine low yield nuclear testing and has provided evidence-WSJ
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between November 5, 2025 ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth or in space will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations.
Use/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a fake weapon that never detonates, or a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material by means of a conventional explosion are not sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution of this market. Only a successful nuclear detonation will result in a "Yes" resolution.
This market may resolve to "Yes" as soon as a nuclear detonation is confirmed by a preponderance of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.