Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto
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Market pricing makes Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto the favorite at 96%, as of .
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What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
LATEST: @adam3us discusses on @CNBC the drawbacks of being mistaken for Satoshi Nakamoto.
This is actually fine. Anyone who cares about Satoshi should act this way and confuse anyone who may try to pinpoint Satoshi's real identity. Dare I say this is the duty of everyone involved in crypto. Satoshi chose to stay hidden, you must help him.
DLNEWS: A new exposé says Adam Back is Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto. Here's a list of all the other suspects
NYT reporter says he solved mystery of Bitcoin founder's identity — but man he names flatly denies it
I don't read the NYT so not sure their logic but in my limited research on this two things stuck out to me: 1) Back's email to Satoshi on 8/2008 confirming citation and recommending Wei Dai (who eventually becomes the first reference in white paper) so Back had MAJOR influence but can't be him bc why would he email himself like that, that's insane. 2) Hal Finney (who received first btc) lived within a few blocks of a guy named Satoshi Nakamoto. I mean what are the odds that's just a coincidence? Maybe a billion to one? On flip they say he was running a race during emails once and spelled words like a brit, so.. who knows.. In the end it's prob better no one knows for sure
Not because I think there’s absolutely zero chance that Adam is satoshi. He’s a top tier candidate in most peoples’ list. But it’s because there’s really nothing new here. There’s no smoking gun but it’s presented like there is…
The alleged creator of Bitcoin is British businessman and programmer Adam Back, writes The New York Times (NYT). As the newspaper notes, until 2011, Satoshi Nakamoto, an anonymous individual or group of individuals who published a manifesto in 2008 describing the cryptocurrency's operation, was considered the inventor of Bitcoin. After 2011, Nakamoto disappeared from public view, and many people were suspected of using his pseudonym: an American businessman, a Canadian programmer, a Finnish sociologist, and an Irish student. New York Times journalist John Carrier compared social media posts of potential candidates with the text of Nakamoto's manifesto. He concluded that Back best fits the profile of the Bitcoin creator. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
A quantum threat to Bitcoin has some asking the unthinkable: Is it time to freeze old wallets belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto?
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Satoshi moves any Bitcoin
- Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
1. Satoshi moves any Bitcoin
This market will resolve to “Something” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time during this market's above-specified time frame.
The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto
If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
2. Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi
This market will resolve to "Something" if definitive evidence confirming that Jeffrey Epstein is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public during this market's above-specified time frame.
Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to, verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence.
If Satoshi Nakamoto is conclusively identified as a group or collective rather than a single individual, definitive evidence that Jeffrey Epstein was a member of that group will qualify.
Unverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, jokes, sarcasm, or unsubstantiated reports will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.