Next Mythos-Class Model released on…?

OpenOutcomes38as of

Market pricing makes September 1 the favorite at 30% across 38 tracked outcomes, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

A complete combined signal timeline is unavailable. The outcome odds above remain current to the stated time.

What is this event about?

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Mythos-class model is made available to the general public. Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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