Next Country US Strikes
Resolved12as of
This hub tracks 12 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
#UPDATE The closure of a Texas airport triggered conflicting explanations Wednesday, as the government claimed an incursion by Mexican cartel drones but lawmakers and media reports suggested the Pentagon's use of anti-drone technology was to blame.
US forces withdraw from Syria's Al-Tanf base: Syrian military sources
Mexican drug cartel drones entered American airspace but were intercepted by the US military, officials said on Wednesday, explaining the brief closure of El Paso airport in Texas.
El Paso airspace reopens after US says cartel drone threat neutralized
American forces evacuated the Al-Tanf base in Syria, which was the largest American base in the country, and withdrew towards Jordan
US coalition forces fighting ISIS have withdrawn from Syria’s al-Tanf base and redeployed to Jordan-Reuters
Iran says it won't negotiate over its missile capabilities
Iran has said its missile program are not for discussion or negotiation. per Reuters
"The drones that crossed over into El Paso airspace were acting in an aggressive manner that threatened helicopters operating along the El Paso - Ciudad Juarez border." [Quoting @All_Source_News]
> The drones that crossed over into El Paso airspace were acting in an aggressive manner that threatened helicopters operating along the El Paso - Ciudad Juarez border. Drones regularly cross into the US by Mexican cartels and human smugglers, especially in Ciudad Juarez which is…
The Federal Aviation Administration temporarily shut down all flights over El Paso, Texas, after Mexican cartel drones breached U.S. airspace, according to a Trump administration official
[Replying to @TheIntelFrog] @TheIntelFrog @ByChrisGordon My guess is that they used the opportunity to test a new counter-UAS system based out of Fort Bliss and was unsure how it would effect commercial aviation over El Paso. > The other TFR posted at the same time with the exact same parameters and language as the one over El Paso is still active per the FAA website. Mexican drones breach US airspace in that area many times a day and have for years. What changed last night? I'm betting this TFR was…
BREAKING: A Trump administration official said the El Paso airspace closure was tied to Mexican cartel drones, but the Defense Department disabled the drones.
Trump administration official says El Paso airspace closure was tied to Mexican cartel drones; US military disabled them
An administration official tells FOX’s @WardDPatrick: “Mexican cartel drones breached US airspace. The Department of War took action to disable the drones. The FAA and DOW have determined there is no threat to commercial travel."
A source with knowledge notes that cartel drones regularly breach US airspace, typically using them for criminal enterprise like delivering supplies, etc. Mostly on the Mexico side of the border, but sometimes they come over to the U.S. side. Needless to say, these incidents…
[Replying to @Rickyew2112] @Rickyew2112 Cartel drones carrying drugs pretty regularly cross into the United States via Mexico. > @sentdefender Holy shit. I'm not sure I thought the cartels would actually be that bold
NEW: Administration official tells me, "Mexican cartel drones breached US airspace. The Department of War took action to disable the drones. The FAA and DOW have determined there is no threat to commercial travel."
BREAKING: The FAA cancels its 10 day airspace closure around El Paso, Texas. [Quoting @Polymarket]
> BREAKING: FAA abruptly closes all airspace around El Paso for 10 days, warns of interception or deadly force against violating aircraft.
BREAKING: Mexican cartel drones breached U.S. airspace near El Paso, Texas; drones disabled
The grounding of flights in El Paso is believed to be tied to the Pentagon's use of counter drone technology to counter Mexican drug cartels' use of drones of the U.S.-Mexico border-Reuters
RUSSIA'S LAVROV ON REPORT U.S. HAS PROHIBITED RUSSIA AND CHINA FROM DEALING WITH VENEZUELAN OIL: THIS IS DISCRIMINATION
IRAQI: NO DATE HAS BEEN SET YET FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF NEGOTIATIONS WITH AMERICA
US issues license facilitating oil, gas exploration and production in Venezuela
President Trump threatens Iran with “something very tough” if US demands aren’t met, warning of possible military strikes as tensions with Tehran escalate.
Trump has said that he might send a second carrier to strike Iran if talks fail, per Axios
The US government issued a general license to allow oilfield-service companies to work in Venezuela as the Trump administration eases sanctions and pushes to rebuild the nation’s crude infrastructure
Trump administration moves closer to opening Venezuela to more US oil producers
Trump: Somalia has come in here and what they have done to our country. These people have come into our country and what they've done with that fake congresswoman, she's so bad.
Trump Threatens To Send Second Carrier Near Iran
The US and Iran each struck a positive tone about the start of diplomatic talks, though analysts remain skeptical that the engagement will be enough to head off US airstrikes.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the first country against which the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the soil or any official embassy or consulate after the time of this market's creation.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the listed country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
If the U.S. does not strike another country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "None before 2027". If the U.S. strikes a country that is not listed next, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will remain open until 5:00 PM ET on the day following the initial announcement/reporting in order to account for the possibility of an earlier strike.
In cases where the precise time of a strike is not confirmed by U.S. government sources the following standards will be applied:
If a strike is announced as happening on a specified date without an exact time, the market will resolve based on the time of the strike based on a consensus of credible reporting. If the timing of the strike cannot be determined by a consensus of credible reporting by 5:00 PM ET on the day following the initial announcement/reporting, the strike will be considered to have occurred on the reported date at 12:00 PM in the time zone in which the strike occurred.
In the case of multiple strikes being announced/reported to have occurred on the same date, with a lack of a precise time being reported for one or multiple of the strikes, a consensus of credible reporting establishing which strike occurred first may be used to resolve the market even if the precise times of the strike(s) aren’t known.
If no consensus of the order of the strikes exists, the market will resolve based on assuming a strike time of 12 PM local time (on the listed strike date) for any strike without a published time.
If a tie still persists due to a shared time zone, the market will resolve according to the order they were announced in.
If publication timestamps are identical or cannot be reliably compared, the market will resolve according to the alphabetical order of the struck countries listed names.
The primary resolution source will be official public statements or publications by the U.S. government (including but not limited to AFRICOM, CENTCOM, EUCOM, INDOPACOM, SOCOM, the Department of Defense, the White House, or other U.S. agencies). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.