Next Country US Strikes
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This hub tracks 12 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
11 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
USAfricaCommand confirms another US strike in #Somalia targeting al-Shabaab on Jan. 12, 2026. The airstrikes occurred in the vicinity of Godane, Somalia, approximately 60 km northeast of Mogadishu - reports
BREAKING: Israeli media reports that military sources say US strike on Iran is now a question of 'when, not if'
"The US will attack Iran in the coming days. This will not be a limited strike, but a powerful one, designed to overthrow the current regime." - IC14
Trump has repeatedly threatened military action against Iran if the country’s leadership continued to crack down on protests.
[Replying to @WarMonitor3] @WarMonitor3 80% chance. > Will the US strike Iran?
The US president has threatened Iran with military strikes amid widespread antigovernment protests there.
US, Partners Launch New Strikes On ISIS Targets In Syria
TRUMP CONSIDERS STRIKES ON IRAN
Trump is seriously considering issuing an order to launch an attack on Iran - reports
Confronting protests, Iran vows to strike back if U.S. attacks
The US military said it carried out multiple strikes in Syria targeting Islamic State as part of an operation that Washington launched in December after an attack on American personnel
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the first country against which the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the soil or any official embassy or consulate after the time of this market's creation.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the listed country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
If the U.S. does not strike another country by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "None before 2027". If the U.S. strikes a country which is not listed next, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.