Next Claude Opus released
Resolved11as of
This hub tracks 11 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Try Opus 5 today. Use “claude-opus-5” on the Claude API, or run “/model claude-opus-5” in Claude Code. • •
Try Opus 5 today. Use “claude-opus-5” on the Claude API, or run “/model claude-opus-5” in Claude Code. • •
Opus 5 is available today on all paid plans and the Claude API, priced the same as Opus 4.8. Itâ€s the default model on Claude Max, and the strongest on Claude Pro. Itâ€s also offered in Fast mode, which runs around 2.5× the default speed. • • Read more:
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.