MO-05 House Election Winner
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Market pricing makes Emanuel Cleaver (D) the favorite at 97% across 8 tracked outcomes, as of .
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Live: This decision solidifies Representative Emanuel Cleaver, a long-serving Kansas City Democrat, as a strong favorite to win re-election. Cleaver, a Methodist pastor who was Kansas City’s first Black mayor, saw his urban district carved up last year to include large swaths of conservative countryside. He filed for re-election anyway, campaigning in both the redrawn district and the older one.
The U.S. Supreme Court has again blocked Missouri from using a redrawn congressional district map in its November midterm elections, a map intended to benefit the state's Republican Party. The new map would have given Republican candidates an advantage in seven of the eight House districts.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).